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Hypotheses

Crypto-Equity Residual Shock Reversal: fade a >=2-sigma 5-session BTC-beta-adjusted move in COIN/HOOD, hedged with a Bybit BTC perp (USEQ 1-DAY + BYBIT 1-HOUR, long-short, cross-venue)

Cross-venue, long-short, beta-hedged relative-value strategy. It pairs two US-listed crypto-exposed stocks (COIN.USEQ and HOOD.USEQ on 1-DAY bars from the Yahoo UsEquitiesCollector; COIN daily data starts 2021-04-14,…

Hypothesis

Cross-venue, long-short, beta-hedged relative-value strategy. It pairs two US-listed crypto-exposed stocks (COIN.USEQ and HOOD.USEQ on 1-DAY bars from the Yahoo UsEquitiesCollector; COIN daily data starts 2021-04-14, HOOD starts 2021-07) with the Bybit BTC linear perpetual (BTCUSDT.BYBIT on 1-HOUR bars from the Bybit collector, starting 2020-03-25). Both legs were checked and are present in the catalog. At each session close, for each stock, compute its daily log return r_s and the BTC log return r_b over the……Show moreShow less

Cross-venue, long-short, beta-hedged relative-value strategy. It pairs two US-listed crypto-exposed stocks (COIN.USEQ and HOOD.USEQ on 1-DAY bars from the Yahoo UsEquitiesCollector; COIN daily data starts 2021-04-14, HOOD starts 2021-07) with the Bybit BTC linear perpetual (BTCUSDT.BYBIT on 1-HOUR bars from the Bybit collector, starting 2020-03-25). Both legs were checked and are present in the catalog. At each session close, for each stock, compute its daily log return r_s and the BTC log return r_b over the SAME window. The BTC price comes from the latest BTCUSDT.BYBIT 1-HOUR bar whose close timestamp is at or before the equity bar's close (20:00 or 21:00 UTC). Find that bar with bisect on a sorted timestamp array built once, so each bar costs O(log n); never rescan history. Fit a rolling OLS beta of r_s on r_b over beta_lookback=60 sessions. The daily residual is e = r_s - beta*r_b. R5 is the 5-session sum of residuals, and z = R5 / stdev of 5-session residual sums over resid_vol_lookback=120 sessions. When |z| >= z_entry, fade the stock-specific move. If z >= +z_entry, short the stock and buy a beta-scaled BTC perp. If z <= -z_entry, buy the stock and short the beta-scaled BTC perp. The premise is short-horizon residual reversal (Lehmann 1990; Jegadeesh 1990), applied to a factor that equity residual models usually miss. Crypto-equity names trade on retail and ETF flows that overshoot the 24/7 crypto price that drives their fundamentals. BTC is the only correct hedge factor because it is the mechanism, which is why a BTC instrument is used despite BTC's corpus share. The BTC leg goes on BYBIT (2.3% of the corpus), not BINANCE (62%). This differs from the in-pipeline CoinOvernightBtcUnderreactionIntradayLS, which trades intraday catch-up toward BTC within one session on 1h bars; this strategy trades multi-session reversal of the residual, hedged, on daily bars. It also differs from the failed stock-vs-sector-ETF reversal, which died on a config/leverage mismatch rather than on economics, and used a different factor and universe. Sizing: the stock leg is stock_notional_pct (15%) of equity. The BTC leg's notional is beta times the stock notional, capped at 2x the stock notional. At most one open pair per stock, so at most 2 concurrent pairs and gross exposure of about 75% of equity or less; no leverage is needed. Leave config.leverage at its default and do not add a leverage parameter. Fee arithmetic: COIN's 5-session residual sigma is about 6-7% (stock-specific daily vol about 3%), so a 2-sigma trigger is a residual dislocation of about 13%. If about 25% of it reverts during the hold, the stock leg captures about 3.0% and the hedged pair returns about 1.2-1.5% on total two-leg notional. Round-trip cost is about 0.05% on the USEQ leg (spread plus impact) and about 0.11% on the Bybit leg (taker), roughly 0.10% blended on gross notional, so expected capture is more than 10x cost. Firing rate: a two-sided 2-sigma trigger on two names with holds of up to 10 sessions gives about 10-14 entries per name per year, about 100-130 pair trades over about 5.3 years. The trigger is a market observation, never a calendar date.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.