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Long-Tail Alt Cross-Exchange Perp Dislocation Convergence: OKX vs Binance USD-M on 8 Mid/Small-Cap Alts, Market-Neutral, Hard 0.4% Minimum Gap, 1-Bar Confirmation Delay (1H)

Market-neutral, cross-venue convergence trade between the SAME coin's USDT perpetual on OKX and on Binance USD-M, restricted to 8 long-tail alts where the two venues' order books are thin and their participant mix…

Hypothesis

Market-neutral, cross-venue convergence trade between the SAME coin's USDT perpetual on OKX and on Binance USD-M, restricted to 8 long-tail alts where the two venues' order books are thin and their participant mix differs (CVX, API3, GLM, MAGIC, NMR, AXS, GAS, ZETA). The premium is p_t = ln(close_OKX / close_BINANCE) on aligned 1H bars. A dislocation is dev_t = p_t - mean(p, 168h), with z_t = dev_t / std(p, 168h). When |z| >= z_entry AND |dev| >= min_dev (a HARD floor that the dead……Show moreShow less

Market-neutral, cross-venue convergence trade between the SAME coin's USDT perpetual on OKX and on Binance USD-M, restricted to 8 long-tail alts where the two venues' order books are thin and their participant mix differs (CVX, API3, GLM, MAGIC, NMR, AXS, GAS, ZETA). The premium is p_t = ln(close_OKX / close_BINANCE) on aligned 1H bars. A dislocation is dev_t = p_t - mean(p, 168h), with z_t = dev_t / std(p, 168h). When |z| >= z_entry AND |dev| >= min_dev (a HARD floor that the dead SolCrossVenueResidualConvergence lacked), wait ONE bar (stale-print guard). If |dev| is still >= 0.2% at that close, short the rich venue and long the cheap venue in equal base quantity. Exit when dev crosses back through zero or |dev| < 0.1%, or at a max_hold clock. POINT-IN-TIME PRE-STUDY (this session, catalog 1H bars, 2024-06 to 2026-09). A first scan of all 157 coins with >= 8000 aligned bars found 887 events at |z|>3 and |dev|>0.4%, with a pooled 24h convergence mean of 0.88%. In-sample the convergence sign is positive for nearly every name. On the 10-name panel with delayed entry and the still-dislocated filter: n=168, mean capture 0.745%, median 0.534%, 78% of trades > 0.2%, mean hold 8.9h. Yearly mean is positive in 2023 (+1.29%), 2024 (+1.10%), 2025 (+0.74%) and 2026 (+0.56%). The median hourly dollar volume on the thinner venue at event time is ~$2.9M. Selection-bias disclosure: the 8 names were picked by in-sample EVENT COUNT among those with >= ~20k aligned bars, not by in-sample PnL. Each name's convergence mean was positive, as it was across the full 157-name scan. It is a capped universe (<= 10 names, per L173) with O(1) rolling statistics per pair: no ranking, PCA or beta re-estimation, so the compute stays small. Why this differs from the dead cross-venue family: (1) I measured the same mechanism on majors (LINK, BCH, ETC, UNI, DOT, AVAX). Their 24h convergence at |z|>3 is only 0.13-0.25%, which is at or below the 0.20% two-leg cost. The edge exists only in the long tail, where gaps are 3-5x larger. (2) There is a hard minimum-gap floor and a 1-bar confirmation delay. (3) Funding-spread carry is NOT part of the thesis. I measured the deduplicated Binance-OKX 7-day funding differential at 0.1-0.25%, too small to matter. Rationale for the venue: OKX is 1.4% of the corpus and cross-venue is 7.1% (quota >= 15%). Long-short market-neutral is 15.5%. None of these 8 coins appears in the recent corpus. Data: OkxCollector USDT-swap OHLCV (<BASE>USDT.OKX) plus Binance Vision USD-M 1H klines, both already in the catalog for all 16 instruments.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.