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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Cross-Asset Beta-Confluence Directional Trend, Long-Short (ATOMUSDT.BINANCE USD-M 4H primary, GATED BY THE BTCUSDT DAILY MACRO TREND rather than ATOM's own slow timeframe) — trade a high-beta L1 alt's 4H momentum ONLY when it agrees with the market-leader's macro direction, flat on disagreement, ATR-trailing exit, 3-parameter

A LONG-SHORT, two-instrument, pure-OHLCV directional strategy. PRIMARY = ATOMUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual on 4H bars (the instrument actually traded). CONFIRM = BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M 1D trend (signal-only, never…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, two-instrument, pure-OHLCV directional strategy. PRIMARY = ATOMUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual on 4H bars (the instrument actually traded). CONFIRM = BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M 1D trend (signal-only, never traded). Not a single-instrument dual-TF reskin of the deployed BTC/ADA/ETH confluence winners and not a same-instrument regime/efficiency/volatility gate (dead per L92): the confirming filter is a DIFFERENT ASSET. High-beta L1 alts inherit BTC's macro direction with a lag; an alt's own 4H momentum mixes BTC-led beta (trends, clears fees) with idiosyncratic chop (mean-reverts inside fees, why naked alt momentum fee-dies). Trading ATOM's 4H momentum ONLY when it agrees in sign with BTC's daily trend isolates the beta-led leg and discards the chop. ATOM chosen: liquid ~5yr L1 major, not in the deployed book or the failed-clone list. Fills pairs-scope (13.5%) and long-short (14.1%) under-represented buckets. 3 params: ATOM 4H EMA ratio + BTC daily lookback; ATR trailing exit.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.