Hypotheses
DeFi vs L1 Sector Long-Short Momentum Basket Rotation (Weekly)
A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-SECTOR MOMENTUM ROTATION strategy: two 2-instrument baskets (DeFi/infra: LINK + AAVE; L1 majors: BTC + ETH) where the strategy ROTATES which sector to long vs short based on trailing 4-week…
Strategies
Hypothesis
A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-SECTOR MOMENTUM ROTATION strategy: two 2-instrument baskets (DeFi/infra: LINK + AAVE; L1 majors: BTC + ETH) where the strategy ROTATES which sector to long vs short based on trailing 4-week relative momentum. RATIONALE driven by the now-DEFINITIVE session finding: 14+ strategy attempts across 5 mechanism categories have all failed. The analyst's most recent calibration update explicitly acknowledges 'EVERY class-level pattern extraction I have made this session has been wrong' and……Show moreShow less
A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-SECTOR MOMENTUM ROTATION strategy: two 2-instrument baskets (DeFi/infra: LINK + AAVE; L1 majors: BTC + ETH) where the strategy ROTATES which sector to long vs short based on trailing 4-week relative momentum. RATIONALE driven by the now-DEFINITIVE session finding: 14+ strategy attempts across 5 mechanism categories have all failed. The analyst's most recent calibration update explicitly acknowledges 'EVERY class-level pattern extraction I have made this session has been wrong' and identifies remaining genuinely-untested categories. This proposal explicitly answers the analyst's explicit recommendation: 'Statistical arbitrage on sector baskets (long DEX-token basket vs short L1-token basket as a single position)' — a TRULY untested mechanism in this session. KEY DIFFERENTIATION from the 4 falsified cross-asset pairs (ETH/BTC, BNB/ETH, SOL/ETH, LINK/ETH): (a) MULTI-INSTRUMENT per side — 2 DeFi instruments vs 2 L1 instruments — internal diversification within each leg dilutes the single-asset asymmetry that killed all pair MR strategies. (b) MOMENTUM-based, NOT mean-reversion — the strategy ROTATES to whichever sector has been outperforming, betting on momentum persistence; this is structurally different from MR which assumes drift reverses. (c) SECTOR-vs-SECTOR thesis — instead of betting two assets revert to each other, the strategy bets that the OUTPERFORMING SECTOR continues outperforming (academic momentum literature: Asness/Frazzini/Pedersen). (d) WEEKLY rebalancing — low frequency, fee-friendly, captures cross-sectional sector trends documented in equity factor models. (e) ZERO supplementary data dependency. (f) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — 1 decision parameter (momentum lookback weeks=4). DIFFERENTIATION FROM L1 BASKET (in pipeline): L1SectorBasketCrossSectionalMomentumLongShortDaily ranks WITHIN one sector (5 L1s); this strategy ranks BETWEEN two sectors. Different signal, different math, complementary diversification.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.