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Hypotheses

BTC Binance-Hyperliquid Cross-Venue Price Convergence Arbitrage (1H)

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE strategy: simultaneously LONG one venue's BTC perpetual and SHORT the other venue's BTC perpetual when their prices diverge meaningfully, capturing the convergence as cross-venue…

Hypothesis

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE strategy: simultaneously LONG one venue's BTC perpetual and SHORT the other venue's BTC perpetual when their prices diverge meaningfully, capturing the convergence as cross-venue arbitrageurs close the dislocation. RATIONALE driven by the now-definitive session finding: 22+ strategy attempts across 6 mechanism categories have all failed. The analyst's honest final conclusion is 'every mechanism we've tested this session has failed; the only valid pivots are categories that……Show moreShow less

A DOLLAR-NEUTRAL CROSS-VENUE ARBITRAGE strategy: simultaneously LONG one venue's BTC perpetual and SHORT the other venue's BTC perpetual when their prices diverge meaningfully, capturing the convergence as cross-venue arbitrageurs close the dislocation. RATIONALE driven by the now-definitive session finding: 22+ strategy attempts across 6 mechanism categories have all failed. The analyst's honest final conclusion is 'every mechanism we've tested this session has failed; the only valid pivots are categories that have not been tested at all OR waiting.' The four genuinely-untested categories remaining are: (1) Sub-daily single-instrument intraday on BTC/ETH — partially covered, (2) Cross-VENUE arbitrage (Binance vs Hyperliquid), (3) Expanded cross-sectional momentum (10-20 alts), (4) Volatility-targeting overlays. This proposal directly addresses untested category #2 — the only genuinely-novel mechanism class not yet attempted in this session. KEY STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES from all 22 failed strategies: (a) Not cross-ASSET pair MR — this is cross-VENUE on the SAME asset (BTC), eliminating the ratio-drift problem that killed 5 pair MR attempts. (b) Not single-instrument directional — fully market-neutral by construction. (c) Not trend-following or cross-sectional momentum. (d) The convergence force is REAL and MECHANICAL: when BTC perp diverges meaningfully between Binance and Hyperliquid, professional arb desks (Jump, GSR, Wintermute, Cumberland) and retail arbitrageurs actively close it within minutes-to-hours. This is a STRUCTURALLY ENFORCED arbitrage, not a statistical pattern. (e) The same asset (BTC) on both legs eliminates the asymmetric long/short win-rate signature that killed all 4 pair MR attempts. MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — 2 parameters (entry spread threshold, exit spread threshold). ZERO supplementary data dependency — both legs use only OHLCV from their respective venues. ADDRESSES ANALYST'S #2 RECOMMENDED UNTESTED CATEGORY EXACTLY.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.