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Hypotheses

Deribit ETH Short-Dated Delta-Hedged Strangle — Variance-Risk-Premium Harvest, IV-Rank Gated, Perp Delta Hedge (ETH weekly options + ETH perp, Market-Neutral Vega/Theta)

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, OPTIONS-based volatility-carry strategy that harvests the crypto variance risk premium (implied vol persistently exceeds subsequently-realized vol) by systematically selling a near-dated (nearest…

Hypothesis

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, OPTIONS-based volatility-carry strategy that harvests the crypto variance risk premium (implied vol persistently exceeds subsequently-realized vol) by systematically selling a near-dated (nearest weekly, ~5-7 DTE) ETH strangle on Deribit and delta-hedging the residual directional exposure with the ETH perpetual. This is a DELIBERATE family switch away from the trend/momentum graveyard: the flagged proposal was the Nth dual-timeframe-momentum-confluence clone (its near-twin was abandoned overfit,……Show moreShow less

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, OPTIONS-based volatility-carry strategy that harvests the crypto variance risk premium (implied vol persistently exceeds subsequently-realized vol) by systematically selling a near-dated (nearest weekly, ~5-7 DTE) ETH strangle on Deribit and delta-hedging the residual directional exposure with the ETH perpetual. This is a DELIBERATE family switch away from the trend/momentum graveyard: the flagged proposal was the Nth dual-timeframe-momentum-confluence clone (its near-twin was abandoned overfit, Sharpe 0.34; lesson L94 says these venue clones never transfer). This hypothesis shares NO mechanism, NO signal, and NO direction with that family. It is not momentum (L94/L95), not a pairs/cointegration spread (L96), and not a sub-fee microstructure fade. The edge is a documented structural risk premium — option sellers are paid for bearing gap/tail risk — filtered so we only sell when that premium is actually rich (IV-rank elevated, term structure in contango, realized vol not already spiking). Options are the single most under-represented venue bucket in the entire factory (0% coverage vs the >=15% quota); this also books market-neutral direction and cross-venue scope (Deribit options + Binance perp hedge). The regime gate is the anti-overfit core: we do NOT sell vol blindly (that is how short-vol books die in a crash) — we stand flat when vol is cheap or already exploding, harvesting the premium only in the contango/mean-reverting-vol regime where it is real.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.