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Hyperliquid BTC 1-Hour Momentum Trend-Continuation, LONG/SHORT (Single-Instrument HYPERLIQUID Perp, Pure OHLCV, Flip-Via-Flat, Sound Wide-Target/Tight-Stop Geometry, Fixed-Fractional Sizing — The Highest-Holdout-Density Non-Sub-Hourly Cadence [24 bars/day], Hard Pre-Registered DATA-DEPTH Kill-Switch to One-Shot Test Whether Deep 1H HL History Exists, Fills Long-Short + HL Venue, Tail-Safe, Low-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 1-HOUR momentum / trend-continuation strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID. It is derived directly from the fully-mapped validation geometry of every prior HL failure: the engine needs BOTH…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 1-HOUR momentum / trend-continuation strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID. It is derived directly from the fully-mapped validation geometry of every prior HL failure: the engine needs BOTH deep history (3-window walk-forward) AND enough trades in the FIXED 15-day holdout, and no single tested cadence has had both — HL daily is deep (~3yr) but a 15-day holdout is only ~15 bars (the daily breakout got 0-1 OOS trades; even high-turnover daily tops out ~7), while HL 15-min has plenty of……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 1-HOUR momentum / trend-continuation strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID. It is derived directly from the fully-mapped validation geometry of every prior HL failure: the engine needs BOTH deep history (3-window walk-forward) AND enough trades in the FIXED 15-day holdout, and no single tested cadence has had both — HL daily is deep (~3yr) but a 15-day holdout is only ~15 bars (the daily breakout got 0-1 OOS trades; even high-turnover daily tops out ~7), while HL 15-min has plenty of bars/day but only ~2 months total (single regime; 5 independent runs dead on it; sub-hourly generation is banned until backfill). The ONLY cadence that can satisfy both is intraday-but-NOT-sub-hourly (1H/4H) IF its history is deep. The 4H momentum-LS probe is already pending; this is the 1-HOUR complement, which is the STRONGEST holdout-density candidate: at 24 bars/day a 15-day holdout spans ~360 bars (vs ~90 at 4H, ~15 daily), so the holdout and each WF OOS window are richly populated, and if 1H history is deep (~3yr ~26k bars) the walk-forward is well-powered. 1H is explicitly OUTSIDE the sub-hourly (<1H) ban. The BINDING UNKNOWN is whether HL 1H data is deep (~2023+) or shallow (~2 months like 15-min); rather than thrash, this is structured as a ONE-SHOT test with a hard pre-registered kill-switch. Mechanism is the geometrically-SOUND momentum-LS already demonstrated clean on HL BTC (the 15-min momentum-LS showed avg_win 710 > avg_loss 327, 2.17x, and avg_position_pct 84.95% — only data length, never sizing or geometry, killed it), on the PROVEN-clean HL BTC long-short path (TS-mom LS sized 97%). It fills the dominant direction gap (long_only 85.9% vs <=55%) and the under-weight HL venue (7.2% vs >=20%). Bug-avoiding: pure OHLCV, ONE fixed-fractional size per entry, NO dynamic resizing, leverage 1.0, dual flat guard, flip-via-flat. PRE-REGISTERED ACCEPTANCE (hard kill-switches, evaluated FIRST, to avoid thrash): (1) DATA-DEPTH — verify 1H HL BTC data spans >= ~2 years AND the 15-day holdout contains >= ~10 trades; if NOT, the sub-daily HL data wall extends to 1H -> ABANDON & ESCALATE to the data engineer (do NOT iterate, do NOT optimize). (2) SIZING — avg_position_pct ~<=100% and no physically impossible 1H/daily equity jump; if violated, abandon & escalate as a reproducer. (3) GEOMETRY — avg_win > avg_loss must hold (wide trail > tight stop net of ~0.09% HL RT). Low parameter count (momentum lookback, EMA confirm, ATR stop/trail, time stop).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.