Hypotheses
Hyperliquid LTC–BCH Kalman Spread Reversion with Explicit Trade Polarity
Test whether temporary deviations of the LTC/BCH log-price ratio from a latent mean-reverting state predict economically meaningful convergence over 1–5 days. Use synchronized 4-HOUR bars and equal-dollar opposing…
Hypothesis
Test whether temporary deviations of the LTC/BCH log-price ratio from a latent mean-reverting state predict economically meaningful convergence over 1–5 days. Use synchronized 4-HOUR bars and equal-dollar opposing perpetual positions. Adapt the source's state-space mechanism while explicitly defining spread polarity: a high LTC-minus-BCH spread means short LTC and long BCH. A prediction error alone is insufficient; entry also requires forecast convergence large enough to pay execution costs. No source performance claim is accepted as evidence.
Analysis
Why long a position when the acutal price is higher than the predicted price? (Kalman filter for pairs trading)
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.