Hypotheses
ATOM 4H Parabolic SAR Trend-Following Long
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on ATOMUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES driven by ALL recent…
Strategies
- ATOMParabolicSARTrendLong4H Abandoned
Hypothesis
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on ATOMUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES driven by ALL recent failure patterns: (a) ZERO supplementary data dependency — 6 consecutive supp-data hypotheses failed; pure OHLCV only. (b) NOT mean reversion, NOT contrarian short — both structurally falsified. (c) 4H + Binance USD-M — the empirically proven verification combination. (d) NEW symbol — ATOM (Cosmos) is……Show moreShow less
A long-only single-instrument TREND-FOLLOWING strategy on ATOMUSDT perpetual futures (Binance USD-M) using the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) indicator on 4-hour bars. CRITICAL DESIGN CHOICES driven by ALL recent failure patterns: (a) ZERO supplementary data dependency — 6 consecutive supp-data hypotheses failed; pure OHLCV only. (b) NOT mean reversion, NOT contrarian short — both structurally falsified. (c) 4H + Binance USD-M — the empirically proven verification combination. (d) NEW symbol — ATOM (Cosmos) is NOT in the current portfolio of ADA/AVAX/BNB/BTC/DOT/ETH/LINK/LTC/SOL/UNI; ATOM has been on Binance perp since 2020 providing ~5 years of multi-regime coverage. (e) NEW mechanism — Parabolic SAR (Welles Wilder 1978) is structurally distinct from every in-pipeline indicator: NOT a channel (Donchian/Keltner), NOT volume-based, NOT MACD, NOT Supertrend (despite both being trailing stops, the math is fundamentally different — SAR uses a parabolic acceleration function on the extreme point, Supertrend uses ATR bands), NOT a moving-average system (Hull/EMA/SMA), NOT an oscillator (Aroon). (f) MAXIMALLY SIMPLE — 3 canonical Wilder defaults (AF start=0.02, AF step=0.02, AF max=0.20). (g) REGIME-DECAY MITIGATION — explicit response to the BTC WRB failure where edge decayed in 2025-2026 ETF-dominated regime. Alt-perps like ATOM have NOT undergone the same institutional/ETF microstructure shift as BTC, so trend-following mechanisms there should retain more of their historical edge in the holdout window. Additionally, ATOM is sector-distinct (Cosmos/IBC interchain protocol) which provides genuine diversification from the L1/L2/payments/oracle/DeFi alts already in the portfolio.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.