Hyperliquid ALGO/ICP Participation-Weighted Drift Behind Flat Prices

Hypothesis

Test whether return-volume covariance predicts a multi-day directional move when net price drift is small. High-volume advances offset by low-volume declines suggest accumulation; the mirror suggests distribution. Independently trade ALGO and ICP perpetuals on 4-HOUR bars using OHLCV only. This is an original hypothesis, not a demonstrated edge or an aggressor-flow measurement. Market orders execute at the completed signal bar close, the registry equivalent of next-bar-open execution on continuous venues. Risk control route (b): signal/time exits with 20% equity per sleeve and 40% maximum gross exposure. Official commission reference: [Hyperliquid fees](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/fees).