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Hypotheses

Daily Cross-Sectional 60-Day Drawdown-from-Peak Reversal: Long Deepest-Drawdown + Short Shallowest-Drawdown Across 6 Major Binance Perps

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional mean-reversion strategy on the same fixed universe of 6 major Binance USD-M perpetuals (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, AVAX, LINK — all confirmed clean OHLCV data) that captures the DRAWDOWN…

Hypothesis

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional mean-reversion strategy on the same fixed universe of 6 major Binance USD-M perpetuals (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, AVAX, LINK — all confirmed clean OHLCV data) that captures the DRAWDOWN REVERSAL anomaly first documented by DeBondt & Thaler (1985) 'Does the Stock Market Overreact?'. Every 24 hours, the strategy ranks the 6 assets by their current drawdown from their 60-day rolling high (current_price - rolling_60d_high) / rolling_60d_high × 100, goes LONG the 2 assets with the DEEPEST……Show moreShow less

A dollar-neutral, cross-sectional mean-reversion strategy on the same fixed universe of 6 major Binance USD-M perpetuals (BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, AVAX, LINK — all confirmed clean OHLCV data) that captures the DRAWDOWN REVERSAL anomaly first documented by DeBondt & Thaler (1985) 'Does the Stock Market Overreact?'. Every 24 hours, the strategy ranks the 6 assets by their current drawdown from their 60-day rolling high (current_price - rolling_60d_high) / rolling_60d_high × 100, goes LONG the 2 assets with the DEEPEST drawdown (most oversold from peak) and SHORT the 2 assets with the SHALLOWEST drawdown (least pullback, most-stretched at highs), equal-weighted within each leg, dollar-neutral. This is the third in the cross-sectional series — DailyCrossSectional7DReturnReversal uses 7-day return ranking (recent direction), DailyCrossSectionalLowVolAnomaly uses 30-day vol ranking (recent magnitude), and this strategy uses 60-day drawdown ranking (longer-horizon peak-relative position). Three structurally orthogonal signal axes on the same universe = three independent edges that can stack without overlap. Returns, volatility, and drawdown-from-peak are EMPIRICALLY UNCORRELATED in major crypto baskets — an asset can have a positive 7-day return WHILE deeply drawn down from peak (recovery phase), or a negative 7-day return WHILE near all-time highs (early pullback). The strategies will hold DIFFERENT positions on most days. Uses ONLY BINANCE USD-M perp daily bars — no supplementary data, no spot, no options, no Hyperliquid. Avoids EVERY failure mode confirmed this session. Fills FIVE under-represented buckets: long-short direction (14.1% → toward 45%), multi-instrument scope (7.8% → grow), cross-sectional mechanism class (the only confirmed winner), portfolio diversifier vs directional strategies, and OHLCV-only data dependency (the only reliably-clean dependency type). Position sizing: 12% per leg × 4 legs = 48% gross exposure, dollar-neutral. Risk per trade: ~1% from cross-sectional spread volatility.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.