BTC Daily Volatility-Targeted Long-Only with Crash-Regime Kill Switch on BTCUSDT.BINANCE

A long-only, single-instrument, dynamically-sized strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual futures that captures BTC's positive long-term drift while smoothing the catastrophic high-volatility drawdowns that plague buy-and-hold. This is a STRUCTURALLY DIFFERENT mechanism class from anything currently in the portfolio: not cross-sectional, not pairs, not breakout, not pullback — it's a VOLATILITY-TARGETED RISK OVERLAY applied to a buy-and-hold thesis. Directly addresses the analyst's prescriptive direction: 'The portfolio's risk budget is best used by adding strategies that are STRUCTURALLY different from these. Pursue volatility-targeting / risk-parity overlay (different risk profile).' Mechanism (Moskowitz-Ooi-Pedersen 2012 'Time-Series Momentum', Hurst-Ooi-Pedersen 2017 'A Century of Trend Following', AQR factor-investing literature): rather than a fixed position size, the strategy sizes inversely proportional to realized volatility. When BTC vol is LOW (typically consolidation periods that precede continuation moves), position is near-maximum. When BTC vol is HIGH (typically tops and crash regimes), position is reduced. When BTC vol is EXTREME (panic regime, > 2.5× rolling 6-month median), position is closed entirely via the crash-regime kill switch. The result: similar long-term return to buy-and-hold but with materially smaller drawdowns and higher Sharpe ratio. CRITICAL DISTINCTION FROM THE FAILED LOW-VOL CROSS-SECTIONAL: that strategy was cross-sectional vol ranking (long low-vol assets, short high-vol assets in a basket); this is TIME-SERIES vol targeting on a SINGLE asset (BTC sizing varies over time). The crypto failure-mode for cross-sectional vol (high-vol = high-momentum) does NOT apply here — within a single asset's own time series, vol-spikes systematically precede drawdowns. Uses ONLY BINANCE USD-M perp daily bars — no supplementary data, no spot, no options, no Hyperliquid. Avoids EVERY confirmed failure mode this session. Fills FOUR critical gaps: (1) NEW MECHANISM CLASS (vol-targeting, not currently in portfolio), (2) RISK-MANAGEMENT-OVERLAY APPROACH (orthogonal to timing-signal strategies), (3) OHLCV-only data dependency, (4) long-only direction that complements the directional multi-timeframe success without redundancy.