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Hypotheses

SOL 4H RSI(2) Extreme-Overbought Momentum-Continuation Long with Daily Bull Regime Filter

A long-only single-instrument MOMENTUM-CONTINUATION strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar bull regime filter. This proposal is the CROSS-ASSET EXTENSION of the…

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument MOMENTUM-CONTINUATION strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar bull regime filter. This proposal is the CROSS-ASSET EXTENSION of the just-added EthFourHourRsi2OverboughtMomentumContinuationLong, transferring the analyst's documented BTC/altcoin mean-reversion asymmetry to SOL. The analyst's failure analysis of ETH 4H RSI(2) Oversold MR (-22.9% return) revealed a critical economic finding: 'On ETH, leverage-driven liquidation……Show moreShow less

A long-only single-instrument MOMENTUM-CONTINUATION strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using 4-hour bars and OHLCV-only data, with a daily-bar bull regime filter. This proposal is the CROSS-ASSET EXTENSION of the just-added EthFourHourRsi2OverboughtMomentumContinuationLong, transferring the analyst's documented BTC/altcoin mean-reversion asymmetry to SOL. The analyst's failure analysis of ETH 4H RSI(2) Oversold MR (-22.9% return) revealed a critical economic finding: 'On ETH, leverage-driven liquidation cascades create runaway selling, and staking validators exit when ETH drops below cost basis. ETH oversold = continuation, not reversion.' By documented symmetry, ETH OVERBOUGHT = upward continuation (leveraged longs cascade-add, validators re-stake rewards during momentum). This same economic mechanism applies WITH GREATER FORCE on SOL: (a) SOL has higher derivative leverage than ETH (smaller open interest concentration, more retail-driven), (b) SOL has a more retail-heavy validator/staking ecosystem (5.3 SOL minimum staking creates many small validator-stakers who systematically re-stake rewards during momentum), (c) SOL has sharper retail FOMO dynamics on extremes (smaller market cap = more volatile crowd dynamics), (d) SOL's outage/uncertainty history produces faster panic-buy reactions when uptrend resumes. The hypothesis specifically articulates WHY this mechanism produces SAME-DIRECTION signal on SOL as on ETH — the analyst's required filter for cross-asset proposals. This proposal passes ALL documented failure patterns: (1) NOT mean-reversion on altcoin (the failure pattern is mean-reversion; this is continuation), (2) NOT daily trend on mid-cap altcoin (this is 4H momentum), (3) NOT options (linear futures), (4) explicit economic justification for cross-asset transfer (analyst's required filter). The mechanism: 4H RSI(2) >= 95 (extreme overbought) in bull regime triggers long entry expecting continuation over 4-12 hours. Mechanistically distinct from existing SOL strategies: SolFourHourVolumeBreakoutLong fires on Donchian high+volume confirmation (slow); SolDailyEmaTrendContinuationLong fires on daily trend (rare); SolEthRatioDailyZScoreMeanRevLongSol fires on cross-asset extremes (different signal class). The RSI(2) Overbought signal fires ~30-50× per year on SOL 4H, capturing intra-trend momentum acceleration that the other 3 SOL strategies miss. SOL 4H is the most-cached data path in the system (SolFourHourVolumeBreakoutLong at Sharpe 4.42 in paper trading).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.