TSX Miner Idiosyncratic Down-Shock Rebound: buy a Canadian metals/gold miner at the next TSX open after a >=2-sigma daily drop RELATIVE TO ITS MINER PEER BASKET, fixed 5-session open-to-open clock (CAEQ 1-DAY, 8-name panel, long-only, unlevered, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). It is a disjoint-venue, disjoint-name replication of the peer-residual down-shock rule that was promoted on ASX gold miners (AsxGoldMinerIdioDownShockRebound, AUEQ, 288 trades, 0.54% per trade). It shares no instrument with that panel and runs on CAEQ, where the factory has 2 experiments in 5,004. MECHANISM: on a day a miner falls far more than the rest of the mining complex, the gap is stock-specific (guidance cut, grade or cost miss, equity raise, an index or fund exit) rather than metal-price news. TSX miners have heavy passive and retail ownership and a thin pool of specialist buyers, so liquidity-driven selling overshoots and partly reverses over about a week. SIGNAL (computed at each TSX daily close): for each panel name i, r_i = log return close-to-close; peer_i = equal-weight mean log return of the OTHER panel names listed that day; beta_i = 120-session rolling OLS slope of r_i on peer_i, lagged one session; residual e_i = r_i - beta_i x peer_i; z_i = e_i / (60-session rolling std of e_i, lagged one session). A shock is z_i <= shock_z (baseline -2.0) AND r_i < 0. EXECUTION: the buy is a market order decided on the shock day's close that fills at the NEXT TSX session open (next_open_fill, supported on session venues); the position is closed by a market order decided on the close of the 4th session after entry, which fills at the open of the 5th session after entry: exactly 5 sessions open-to-open. No stop and no target (risk-control route (b): time exit plus capped sizing). PANEL (fixed, pre-registered; all have CAEQ daily bars from 2018-01-02): gold/precious AEM, ABX, K, WPM, FNV; base metals and uranium TECK-B, FM, CCO. SURVIVORSHIP DISCLOSURE: the panel comes from today's TSX top-100 universe file; miners that collapsed or were taken over before today are not in the catalog, so the long arm is biased upward by name selection. The peer-relative trigger and a pre-registered peer-excess diagnostic are the controls: the backtest report must give each trade's return minus the equal-weight peer basket's same 5-session open-to-open return. If raw returns are positive but peer-excess is <= 0, the idiosyncratic-rebound premise is NOT shown (it is miner beta in a metals bull market) and the analyst should read it that way. PRE-STUDY (frozen rule shock_z=-2.0, 5-session clock, measured on these exact names 2018-01 to 2026-10, used only to pre-register sample size): 417 events on 333 distinct entry dates (about 38 dates a year); mean raw 5-session open-to-open return +1.04%, mean peer-excess +0.48%, 56.6% positive; raw mean positive in 7 of 9 calendar years (2019 -0.94%, 2023 -0.27%); every name except FM had a positive mean. FEE ARITHMETIC: CAEQ is commission-light; assume ~0.10% round-trip spread and impact on these large caps, so the 1.04% raw mean (≈0.9% net) is ~9x the round trip, and the analyst floor (round trip + 0.05) is about 0.15%. Sizing: 12.5% of equity per position, at most 6 concurrent (75% gross), one position per name, no pyramiding; a new shock on a name already held is ignored. CAEQ is a cash account in CAD: long-only, 1x. At ~50% annualized single-name vol a 12.5% leg contributes ~6% annualized vol, well inside the conservative profile's 120% per-position cap; expected strategy vol ~8-12%.