OP-ARB Ethereum L2 Rollup Pairs Spread Mean Reversion

A market-neutral (dollar-neutral) pairs trading strategy on the two dominant Ethereum Layer-2 optimistic rollups: OPUSDT (Optimism) and ARBUSDT (Arbitrum) on Binance USD-M futures. Both are direct competitors in the same niche — EVM-compatible optimistic rollups securing transactions via Ethereum L1 — and share virtually identical fundamental drivers (ETH gas fees, L2 TVL flows, EIP-4844 blob upgrades, restaking narratives). Their 90-day rolling correlation typically exceeds 0.85, and their price ratio (OP/ARB) oscillates within a stable regime, diverging on idiosyncratic catalysts (Optimism Superchain announcements, Arbitrum Stylus releases, governance airdrops, ARB unlocks) and reverting as ecosystem flows normalize. Strategy follows the proven recipe of the successful ADA-DOT pairs trade (Sharpe 6.4): compute log-ratio z-score on 4H bars, fade extreme readings (|z|>2.0), exit at z-reversion to ±0.3. Long the underperforming rollup, short the outperforming rollup in equal dollar amounts. Captures relative-value alpha that is uncorrelated to overall crypto beta — diversifying portfolio away from BTC-direction exposure and from the L1-altcoin pairs already in the pipeline (ADA-DOT, SOL-AVAX).