US Semiconductor Shock Diffusion into Tokyo: trade 6 Japanese chip names (JPEQ, 1-DAY) in the direction of a >=1.5-sigma SMH session, next-Tokyo-open entry, fixed 3-session clock, long + short (SMH.USEQ as signal source only)

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). MECHANISM: cross-time-zone information diffusion. The US semiconductor complex (SMH) prices global chip news (NVIDIA/TSMC guidance, export-control headlines, AI-capex prints) in the US session, which ends at 05:00-06:00 JST, before Tokyo opens. Tokyo's opening auction absorbs part of that shock, but Japanese chip-equipment and materials names are held and traded heavily by slow domestic institutions and by foreign accounts that rebalance over several sessions, so the price adjustment to a large sector-level shock is spread over days, not completed at the first open. The hypothesis: after a US session in which SMH moves by >=1.5 times its trailing 60-session daily std, the Japanese chip names keep moving in the SMH direction over the following three Tokyo sessions, measured from the open after the first post-shock Tokyo session. UNIVERSE (fixed, stated up front): 8035 Tokyo Electron, 6857 Advantest, 6920 Lasertec, 7735 SCREEN, 6723 Renesas, 4063 Shin-Etsu Chemical, all JPEQ 1-DAY from 2018-01. 6146 Disco is excluded because one 100-share board lot (~5.2M JPY) is about a third of the ~15M JPY account. SURVIVORSHIP CAVEAT, stated honestly: these names come from today's JPEQ top-100-by-market-cap list. There is no point-in-time Japanese index membership on the platform, so the long arm inherits a winner bias (the sector rallied hard over 2018-2026). For that reason the long arm and the short arm are pre-registered and must be reported separately; the short arm trades against that bias. PRE-MEASUREMENT (frozen rule, catalog bars, 7 names incl. Disco, 2018-09..2026-10, open[T+1] to open[T+4], gross of costs): at |z_SMH| >= 1.5 with no extra filter, 935 name-events on 222 distinct event dates (~28 per year), mean signed return +0.60% per name-event; long arm +0.90% (503), short arm +0.26% (432); naive t 3.0, which overstates the evidence because names on one date are correlated. Independent evidence is therefore ~222 event dates, not 935 trades. At |z| >= 2.0: 90 dates, +0.68%. COST ARITHMETIC: JPEQ is zero-commission with a 3 bp half spread, so a round trip is ~0.06%, plus 1.10%/yr borrow on shorts (~0.013% for 3 sessions). The expected net per name-event is ~0.45-0.55% against a ~0.07% cost, about 7x cost. EXECUTION: JPEQ is a session venue, so a decision at the Tokyo close of session T fills at the open of session T+1 (next_open_fill, supported). SMH.USEQ is a signal-only extra instrument and is never traded, so the account holds only JPY and metrics are in JPY (USD view in fx_report). Daily price limits and board lots are enforced by the venue: a market order into a limit-locked name is refused, and that event is skipped. Distinct from the in-pipeline Japan weekly low-volume reversal (JPEQ). That idea is a calendar-rebalanced cross-sectional reversal driven by each stock's own move. This one is a continuation trade triggered by a foreign-market sector event, and it is flat about 75% of sessions.