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Hypotheses

Hyperliquid SOL Liquidation-Cascade Exhaustion Fade, Long-Short (Single-Instrument Perp, Trade-Tick + OI Driven, Short-Horizon Microstructure Reversal — NOT Breakout/NOT Pure-OHLCV)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT crypto-native MICROSTRUCTURE reversal strategy on SOLUSD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures, driven by TRADE TICKS + OPEN INTEREST (explicitly NOT pure OHLCV bars and NOT a breakout). It…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT crypto-native MICROSTRUCTURE reversal strategy on SOLUSD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures, driven by TRADE TICKS + OPEN INTEREST (explicitly NOT pure OHLCV bars and NOT a breakout). It deliberately fills the three most under-represented portfolio buckets at once: HYPERLIQUID venue (5.8% vs >=20% target), short-horizon 1m-15m (2.9% vs >=10% target), and long_short direction (14.5% vs the <=55% long-only cap that the book is violating at 85.5%). The mechanism targets forced-liquidation……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT crypto-native MICROSTRUCTURE reversal strategy on SOLUSD.HYPERLIQUID perpetual futures, driven by TRADE TICKS + OPEN INTEREST (explicitly NOT pure OHLCV bars and NOT a breakout). It deliberately fills the three most under-represented portfolio buckets at once: HYPERLIQUID venue (5.8% vs >=20% target), short-horizon 1m-15m (2.9% vs >=10% target), and long_short direction (14.5% vs the <=55% long-only cap that the book is violating at 85.5%). The mechanism targets forced-liquidation cascades: when a cluster of one-sided aggressive (taker) trades drives price a large amount very fast WHILE open interest CONTRACTS (the OI drop is the liquidation fingerprint — leveraged positions being force-closed, not fresh directional conviction which would ADD OI), the move overshoots fair value and tends to snap back once the forced flow exhausts. We fade the exhaustion in the OPPOSITE direction of the cascade. This is mechanically distinct from the previously-failed HL vol-squeeze breakout and opening-range breakout (both were trend-continuation off pure OHLCV bars); here we trade COUNTER to a flow-driven dislocation, gated by an OI-decline confirmation that pure-OHLCV strategies cannot see. Kept deliberately low-parameter (~5 knobs) given the recurring overfitting failures: cascade_move_pct, cascade_window, oi_drop_pct, aggression_ratio, and a single exit geometry. RISK PROFILE: risk 1.5% of equity per trade; volatility-based stop at the cascade's extreme (the wick high/low of the dislocation) so the stop sits where the reversion thesis is invalidated; position sizing scales with signal strength (larger cascade move + larger OI drop => up to 3% risk, marginal signal => 1%); max single-position exposure 20% of equity; hard time-stop of 30 minutes (if the snap-back has not materialized the dislocation was real information, not a liquidation, so exit flat). 1x notional (no leverage needed beyond the perp itself; leverage=1.0).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.