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Hypotheses

BTC Perp Funding-Regime Persistence Directional (Single-Instrument USD-M, Daily, Long-Short, Smoothed-Funding-Sign Structural Carry)

A long-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, single-venue, LOW-TURNOVER directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual futures using DAILY bars, where the SMOOTHED funding rate is the structural regime signal (used as a…

Hypothesis

A long-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, single-venue, LOW-TURNOVER directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual futures using DAILY bars, where the SMOOTHED funding rate is the structural regime signal (used as a signal only, never credited as a cash flow — P&L is fully price-based and creditable). Unlike the fast/extreme funding strategies (spike-momentum, crowding-veto, settlement-reversion) that trade transient positioning, this trades the DURABLE funding REGIME: the multi-week average funding rate is a……Show moreShow less

A long-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, single-venue, LOW-TURNOVER directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE USD-M perpetual futures using DAILY bars, where the SMOOTHED funding rate is the structural regime signal (used as a signal only, never credited as a cash flow — P&L is fully price-based and creditable). Unlike the fast/extreme funding strategies (spike-momentum, crowding-veto, settlement-reversion) that trade transient positioning, this trades the DURABLE funding REGIME: the multi-week average funding rate is a persistent readout of structural demand/positioning — sustained positive funding marks a durable long-demand regime, sustained negative funding marks a capitulated/over-shorted regime — and price tends to drift WITH that regime over the following weeks. The strategy holds a long when the smoothed funding regime is positive, a short when it is negative, and stands flat in a deadband near zero, flipping only when the regime itself flips. This is deliberately the SLOW, symmetric form of a carry-momentum edge: turnover is a handful of flips over years (near fee-immune), the parameter surface is tiny (2-3 params, minimal overfit risk), and being symmetric it can go NET SHORT through sustained bears (e.g. 2022) — directly diversifying a portfolio that is 85.6% long-only. It uses ONLY the two feeds confirmed dense across the full history (OHLCV + funding), on the clean single-instrument USD-M MARGIN path, avoiding every structural blocker this session: NOT BINANCE_SPOT/CASH (metric/fill bug), NOT COIN-M (not backtestable), NOT options/liquidations (sparse data), NOT cross-venue/Hyperliquid (basis artifact), NOT a multi-instrument pair (extra-leg feed bug), NOT funding-carry (no uncreditable cash flow), and NOT a fast price-pattern (the overfit/no-edge families). It is signal-distinct from price time-series-momentum: funding leads/diverges from price MA, so this is not a relabeled trend filter.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.