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Hypotheses

WTI-Brent Crude Spread Reversion on Deribit USDC Oil Perps: Fade 15m Deviations of (WTI - beta*Brent) from a Rolling Regression Fair Value, Dollar-Neutral Two-Leg, Flat Most of the Time (WTIOIL_USDC-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT / BRENTOIL_USDC-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT, 15m)

Restated from first principles (not a line-by-line port) from QuantConnect Strategy Library #100 'Trading with WTI BRENT Spread' (Quantpedia). The source's mechanism: WTI and Brent are near-identical light-sweet crudes…

Hypothesis

Restated from first principles (not a line-by-line port) from QuantConnect Strategy Library #100 'Trading with WTI BRENT Spread' (Quantpedia). The source's mechanism: WTI and Brent are near-identical light-sweet crudes whose price difference is anchored by a physical arbitrage (seaborne export of US crude, which is bounded by freight and quality differentials), so deviations of the spread from its fair value revert. The source trades it on DAILY spot prices, with an SMA-20 entry and a 1-year regression fair-value……Show moreShow less

Restated from first principles (not a line-by-line port) from QuantConnect Strategy Library #100 'Trading with WTI BRENT Spread' (Quantpedia). The source's mechanism: WTI and Brent are near-identical light-sweet crudes whose price difference is anchored by a physical arbitrage (seaborne export of US crude, which is bounded by freight and quality differentials), so deviations of the spread from its fair value revert. The source trades it on DAILY spot prices, with an SMA-20 entry and a 1-year regression fair-value exit. Our venues carry exactly this pair as two USDC-margined linear perpetuals on the same venue: WTIOIL_USDC-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT and BRENTOIL_USDC-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT (Deribit perp fees are 0.015% maker / 0.035% taker, so about 0.07% round trip per leg). We therefore trade the real spread, not a crypto proxy. Adaptations for a 24/7 perp venue: (1) Fair value is a rolling OLS of Brent on WTI over the trailing N bars, with no look-ahead: fit on bars strictly before the current bar. The residual s_t = BRENT_t - (alpha + beta*WTI_t) is standardized by its rolling std into z_t. (2) Entry is on |z| >= z_entry, not on 'spread above/below SMA20'. The source's SMA rule is an always-in design that flips sides on every SMA cross, which the factory has shown pays a double round trip on every flip (L150), so it is replaced by a thresholded entry with an explicit flat state. (3) Deribit's oil perps trade through weekends and CME halts, when there is no underlying futures anchor and only perp flow moves the spread. Dislocations that open in those windows should revert hardest when the CME reopens. This is the novel element vs the source, but it is NOT a gate: it is reported as a separate attribution, per L130. DATA-AGE CAVEAT (binding): both perps' catalog history starts 2026-09-17 (about 9 days as of 2026-09-26). At 15m bars that is about 860 bars, far below what a validation needs. This hypothesis must NOT be started until at least ~75 days of history have accrued (target ~2026-12-01, about 7,000 15m bars). At the expected firing rate of ~2-3 entries per day, that gives at least 150 trades. Until then any backtest is anecdotal. The developer should use lookback_days to match the available history and never substitute another instrument: USO.USEQ has no Brent counterpart in our universe, CL.USEQ is Colgate-Palmolive rather than crude, and crypto 'identical-asset' pairs have spread moves far below fees. Selection choices stated explicitly (L122): the venue and pair are forced by the source (the only WTI/Brent pair we hold); the 15m timeframe is chosen because with ~2.5 months of data it is the coarsest bar that yields at least 150 trades. Lookback, z_entry and z_exit are the three fitted parameters.

Analysis

Trading with WTI BRENT Spread

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.