Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

DOGE Fat-Tail Trend Capture with Dormancy Gate — Long-Short, Volatility-Regime-Gated (DOGEUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, 1D — Enter WITH a Confirmed Directional Breakout ONLY When DOGE Is in an ACTIVE Volatility Regime, Ride the Fat-Tailed Move with a Wide Chandelier Trailing Stop, Stand ASIDE in Dormant Chop; 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV directional trend-follower on DOGEUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, deliberately matched to the instrument whose statistical distribution best fits the ONLY payoff structure this factory…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV directional trend-follower on DOGEUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, deliberately matched to the instrument whose statistical distribution best fits the ONLY payoff structure this factory has ever monetized: fat-tailed trend capture with a trailing stop. DOGE has the heaviest right/left tails of the liquid majors — its moves are episodic, reflexive, and enormous (+50% to +300% pump-trends, then multi-week collapses) — and a wide trailing stop on a trend-follower is the canonical way……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument, pure-OHLCV directional trend-follower on DOGEUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, deliberately matched to the instrument whose statistical distribution best fits the ONLY payoff structure this factory has ever monetized: fat-tailed trend capture with a trailing stop. DOGE has the heaviest right/left tails of the liquid majors — its moves are episodic, reflexive, and enormous (+50% to +300% pump-trends, then multi-week collapses) — and a wide trailing stop on a trend-follower is the canonical way to monetize exactly that distribution: cut losers small, let the rare fat-tail winner run. It is NOT the pending BTC momentum-confluence survivor, NOT my pending BNB pullback / XRP structure / BTC order-flow / BTC spot regime-timer (different instrument, different rationale: distribution-driven, not signal-driven), NOT a squeeze/compression breakout (L54 — the trigger is a confirmed directional breakout ridden for a fat-tail continuation, and the design explicitly requires the ridden move to dwarf fees, not scalp the pop), NOT a fade (L53), NOT basis/carry/cross-venue (that whole family just died fee_edge/no-trades across SOL, BTC, ETH), NOT options/COIN-M/cross-sectional. The known killer of trend systems on a name like DOGE is WHIPSAW during its long dormant/ranging periods (2022–2023), which is addressed head-on by a volatility-regime GATE that stands entirely aside when DOGE is dormant and only participates when realized volatility confirms an active regime. It fills the under-represented long-short bucket (13.2% vs the ≥45% implied by the ≤55% long-only cap) on a fresh instrument absent from the failure/pending lists.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.