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Hypotheses

Hyperliquid BTC 4-Hour Mean-Reversion, LONG/SHORT (Single-Instrument HYPERLIQUID Perp, Pure OHLCV, Counter-Trend Fade of 4H Dislocations With EXPLICIT Target>Stop Geometry Gate, Mild Daily-Regime Filter, Flip-Via-Flat, Fixed-Fractional Sizing — Grounded in the 4H-Momentum-Breakeven Evidence That BTC REVERTS at 4H While It TRENDS Daily, Mechanism-Distinct/Low-Correlation to the Promoted Daily-Momentum Book, Fills Long-Short + HL Venue, Tail-Safe, Low-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 4-HOUR mean-reversion strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID that fades stretched 4H dislocations from a 4H VWAP/EMA on both sides, exiting on reversion to the mean. The thesis is…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 4-HOUR mean-reversion strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID that fades stretched 4H dislocations from a 4H VWAP/EMA on both sides, exiting on reversion to the mean. The thesis is EVIDENCE-GROUNDED, not assumed: the HL BTC 4H MOMENTUM book came back BREAKEVEN (PF 0.99, Sharpe -0.05) while the HL BTC DAILY TS-momentum was strong enough to PROMOTE (Sharpe 0.68, PF 1.59). Momentum working at daily but NOT at 4H is direct evidence that at the 4H timescale BTC does not continue — it REVERTS.……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, 4-HOUR mean-reversion strategy on BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID that fades stretched 4H dislocations from a 4H VWAP/EMA on both sides, exiting on reversion to the mean. The thesis is EVIDENCE-GROUNDED, not assumed: the HL BTC 4H MOMENTUM book came back BREAKEVEN (PF 0.99, Sharpe -0.05) while the HL BTC DAILY TS-momentum was strong enough to PROMOTE (Sharpe 0.68, PF 1.59). Momentum working at daily but NOT at 4H is direct evidence that at the 4H timescale BTC does not continue — it REVERTS. So a 4H counter-trend fade on BTC targets a genuinely different, low-correlation edge from the promoted daily-momentum book (counter-trend vs trend), satisfying the analyst's directive to 'pursue 4H on a DIFFERENT mechanism/instrument, not another BTC momentum clone.' It is on the CONFIRMED-CLEAN instrument (HL BTC sizes 90-97%; over-exposure localized to BINANCE + HL SOL) and the CONFIRMED-DEEP/evaluable cadence (HL 4H ~1.3yr, 178-trade class, 15-day holdout ~90 bars — the validatable sub-daily cadence, NOT the 2-month sub-hourly wall, NOT the daily holdout-sparsity wall). Paired with the pending HL ETH 4H reversion, it tests whether 4H reversion is a venue-wide edge on the two clean majors (per-instrument validation). It fills the dominant direction gap (long_only 85.9% vs <=55%) and the under-weight HL venue (7.4% vs >=20%). CRITICAL GEOMETRY FIX (carried from what works): every prior VWAP-reversion failed on INVERTED geometry (avg_win < avg_loss); this uses an EXPLICIT gate — only enter when distance(price, mean target) >= geom_mult x stop_distance (geom_mult > 1), net of the ~0.09% HL round-trip — so avg_win > avg_loss BY CONSTRUCTION. MILD REGIME FILTER: skip counter-trend fades against a VERY strong opposing daily trend (don't short-fade in a strong daily uptrend, don't buy-dip in a strong daily downtrend) to avoid the knife-catch tail, while still allowing reversion in neutral/normal regimes (the dominant 4H state). Bug-avoiding: pure OHLCV, ONE fixed-fractional size per entry, NO dynamic resizing, leverage 1.0, dual flat guard, flip-via-flat. PRE-REGISTERED ACCEPTANCE: (1) GEOMETRY — realized avg_win > avg_loss, else the gate failed -> abandon. (2) EDGE-vs-REDUNDANCY — must show low correlation / distinct return profile vs the promoted daily-momentum book (if it merely re-expresses daily momentum, abandon as redundant). (3) SIZING — avg_position_pct ~95-100%; mild benign winning-leg notional drift acceptable (4H BTC momentum showed 120.9% with plausible returns), but >~150% with impossible single-period returns -> escalate. 4H depth already confirmed (no data-wall kill-switch needed). Low parameter count (mean lookback, stretch threshold, geom_mult, regime EMA, ATR stop, time stop).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.