Hypotheses
ETH COIN-M Inverse Perp 4H Sequential Higher-Low Accumulation Breakout Long-Only (BINANCE_CM, OHLCV-Only, 3-Parameter)
A long-only, single-instrument, single-venue trend-initiation strategy on ETHUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (ETH-margined inverse perpetual) using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Mechanism: detects a classic Dow Theory…
Strategies
Hypothesis
A long-only, single-instrument, single-venue trend-initiation strategy on ETHUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (ETH-margined inverse perpetual) using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Mechanism: detects a classic Dow Theory accumulation phase via three consecutive higher swing lows, then enters long on a confirmed breakout above the recent N-bar high. This is a structurally DIFFERENT mechanism class from higher-high momentum breakouts already in the portfolio (which fire on rising tops, indicating momentum continuation) —……Show moreShow less
A long-only, single-instrument, single-venue trend-initiation strategy on ETHUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (ETH-margined inverse perpetual) using 4-HOUR bars and OHLCV-only data. Mechanism: detects a classic Dow Theory accumulation phase via three consecutive higher swing lows, then enters long on a confirmed breakout above the recent N-bar high. This is a structurally DIFFERENT mechanism class from higher-high momentum breakouts already in the portfolio (which fire on rising tops, indicating momentum continuation) — higher-LOWS specifically indicate accumulation under resistance, which mechanically reduces float supply and often precedes trend transitions. STRATEGIC RATIONALE: (1) PORTFOLIO QUOTA FILL — BINANCE_CM is at 1.1% vs ≥5% target, the second-most under-represented venue after Options (0%). CM has only 12 experiments vs 915 on BINANCE USD-M futures. Inverse perpetuals have mechanically distinct P&L profiles (returns denominated in the base coin, not USD) producing different drawdown characteristics than linear perpetuals — they deserve dedicated coverage as a distinct risk sleeve. (2) FEE FRIENDLINESS — CM ~0.06% RT taker vs USD-M ~0.10% RT. This 40% fee reduction lowers the avg_trade_return viability floor from 0.15% to 0.10%, expanding the universe of mechanisms that can be net-positive. (3) MECHANISM PROVENANCE — sequential higher-low detection is a textbook accumulation signal from Dow Theory (1900s), Wyckoff (1930s), and Pring (1980s). It works because 3 consecutive higher lows require sustained buying absorption that reduces float; combined with breakout confirmation, the conjunction has higher win-rate than naked breakouts. (4) AVOIDS ALL RECENT FAILURE PATTERNS — OHLCV-only (no liquidations/funding/HL-supplementary data risk that killed BTC Cross-Venue Funding, ETH Liquidation Cluster, BTC CM Funding MR); single instrument single venue (no cross-venue execution coordination complexity); 4H bars proven sleeve (NOT 1H deprecated, NOT daily with WF-warmup deficit); only 3 hypothesis-declared tunable parameters with strict scope discipline (avoiding the 12-parameter bloat that killed ETH Pullback and AVAX Trend-Pullback); symmetric ATR trailing stop on entry (no asymmetric TP<SL math that killed ETH Liquidation); natural trade frequency 25-40/yr on 4H bars (avoiding trade-starvation that killed Multi-Week TFL with 9 trades/year); NOT BNB (avoiding post-2024 moratorium); NOT AVAX (skewness-regime mechanism class deprecated); NOT pair-MR (which has 1H deprecation and methodology contradictions); NOT funding-rate based (avoiding the HL funding data wiring issue that killed BTC Cross-Venue Funding Differential); NOT skewness (mechanism class empirically refuted on daily crypto alts). (5) DISTINCT FROM JUST-LANDED SolHyperliquidFourHourDonchianBreakoutLS — that strategy uses pure rolling-channel Donchian on SOL HL bidirectional; this uses Dow-Theory higher-lows + breakout confirmation on ETHUSD_PERP CM long-only. Different mechanism, different asset, different venue, different direction.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.