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Hypotheses

Volatility-Managed Long-Only Majors Basket (BINANCE USD-M, 6 Majors Equal-Weight, Scale Gross Exposure by Realized-Vol Regime — Full in Calm / Half in Elevated / Cash in High-Vol — Weekly, Pure OHLCV, 2-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY, weekly-managed equal-weight basket of 6 data-verified BINANCE USD-M majors (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT, BNBUSDT, AVAXUSDT, LINKUSDT) whose distinguishing mechanism is a VOLATILITY-MANAGED gross-exposure…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, weekly-managed equal-weight basket of 6 data-verified BINANCE USD-M majors (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT, BNBUSDT, AVAXUSDT, LINKUSDT) whose distinguishing mechanism is a VOLATILITY-MANAGED gross-exposure overlay (Moreira & Muir, 'Volatility-Managed Portfolios', JF 2017) — a documented, mechanically-simple Sharpe-raising technique ORTHOGONAL to the momentum and carry factors already deployed. Instead of predicting direction, it scales gross exposure DOWN as recent realized volatility rises (volatility……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY, weekly-managed equal-weight basket of 6 data-verified BINANCE USD-M majors (BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT, BNBUSDT, AVAXUSDT, LINKUSDT) whose distinguishing mechanism is a VOLATILITY-MANAGED gross-exposure overlay (Moreira & Muir, 'Volatility-Managed Portfolios', JF 2017) — a documented, mechanically-simple Sharpe-raising technique ORTHOGONAL to the momentum and carry factors already deployed. Instead of predicting direction, it scales gross exposure DOWN as recent realized volatility rises (volatility is persistent and reliably precedes drawdowns, especially in crypto) and holds full exposure when markets are calm. This is a re-attempt of a previously abandoned hypothesis whose abandon was an ENGINE BUG (corrupted close-date daily-return Sharpe, fixed 2026-07-24 commit 59c8a73 — Sharpe/vol now from the per-bar MTM equity curve), not a strategy verdict; QA credited the code. It is engineered against this session's hard lessons: PURE OHLCV only (best-surviving tag; no OI/liquidation/funding data walls that abandoned the liquidation and quarterly-basis siblings), MULTI-ASSET equal-weight (escapes the 0/213 single-symbol no-edge class), STANDARD BINANCE USD-M linear venue at leverage 1.0 max (avoids COIN-M venue-mismatch and tick-data implementation failures), and a plain hold-and-resize structure with only 2 tunable parameters (vol lookback, regime cutoffs) to resist overfit (the 202x killer). Discrete 3-state regime switching keeps turnover — and fees — low. Value proposition is a higher Sharpe and lower max-drawdown than an unmanaged equal-weight majors basket, NOT raw return; the overlay's payoff (cutting exposure into persistent high-vol drawdown regimes such as 2022) is distributed across every volatile bear stretch, which is the direct rebuttal to the single-regime-2021 artifact that killed the market-neutral-momentum sibling.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.