Hyperliquid New-Listing Supply-Overhang Decay: short each newly listed HL perp from listing day+3 for 45 days, BTC-hedged, capped 3% legs, funding-squeeze gate (110 HL perp listings 2024-01..2026-08, 1-DAY, long BTC / short alt)

Event-driven, multi-instrument, long-short basket on HYPERLIQUID daily bars. Mechanism: tokens whose perp is newly listed on Hyperliquid (TGE launches, airdrops, memecoins that just went viral) start life with a small float, a high FDV, airdrop recipients and early backers selling, unlock schedules ahead and a listing-hype premium. Once the perp exists, that supply overhang can be expressed short, and prices decay over the following weeks. The trade: on the entry_day-th UTC daily close after each pre-registered listing date (baseline entry_day = 3), short the new perp with a FIXED 3% of equity and buy the same notional of BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID as a market hedge. Hold hold_days (baseline 45), then close both. No signal fitting: the event (listing date) is known at the time it happens. UNIVERSE (pre-declared, point-in-time): every Hyperliquid perp whose first daily bar falls between 2024-01-01 and 2026-08-24 (each has at least 48 days of history by now). That is 110 listings, including those later DELISTED (MYRO, JELLY, OMNI, LISTA, CATI, kDOGS, NEIROETH, AI16Z, LAUNCHCOIN...), so survivorship does not flatter the short side. Excluded by a pre-declared rule, not by returns: ticker rebrands or migrations of a token already on HL (RENDER<-RNDR, POL<-MATIC, S<-FTM, SKY<-MKR) and the tokenized-gold RWA PAXG. The listing date of each instrument is passed as the FIXED parameter map `listing_dates` in optimization_plan.fixed (symbol -> first HL daily bar date, from the catalog). The strategy MUST use this map, not 'the first bar this backtest saw', because walk-forward windows start mid-history. PRIOR ART: two earlier versions of this idea (Bybit 76 listings; Binance USD-M ~37 listings) died for INFRASTRUCTURE reasons (sandbox timeout and data_unavailable) and never produced a measured backtest. Neither is evidence about the idea. This version moves to Hyperliquid (11.5% venue share vs a >=20% target) where full daily history of delisted perps is in the catalog. RL PRE-CHECK (rough, from catalog daily closes, no costs, no stop, not a backtest; first-bar dates are an approximation of listing): across about 100 listings from 2024-03, a short from the day-3 close held 45 days returned a mean of +20.6% (median +35%) unhedged and +22.4% BTC-hedged, with 78% of legs winning. By listing year: 2024 +20%, 2025 +26%, 2026 +8% (only 5 legs, weaker; crowding risk). Hold 30 days: +12% mean; hold 14 days: -2.4% mean. The decay needs weeks, and squeezes dominate the first two weeks. Right tail: half of all legs see a >=+30% adverse excursion inside 45 days, and stops at +40% or +60% cut the mean to about +8-9% (squeeze-then-dump). The risk is therefore controlled by SMALL fixed sizing, not a tight stop. Funding: Hyperliquid funding received or paid by the short over days 4-48 averaged -0.8% (median +1.35%, 10th percentile -9.3%; 2026 listings -10.8% on average, the crowding signal). This motivates the funding-squeeze gate. FEE ARITHMETIC: expected per-alt-leg capture is about 15-20% after funding vs Hyperliquid round-trip taker cost of about 0.09% per leg (0.18% for both legs): over 50x the cost. EXECUTION: 24/7 venue, so orders decided at a daily close fill at that bar's close (the platform's equivalent of next-bar open). The disaster stop is an intrabar protective stop (reduce-only stop-market, matched by the platform inside the bar), not an exchange-resting order. Expected cadence: about 40 listings a year, about 5-6 concurrent legs on average, at most 15. Implementation notes: daily bars only, O(1) work per bar, funding via supp_as_of/supp_window only (never full-history rescans), because a prior 76-instrument version timed out in the sandbox. An instrument with no bars yet (before listing) or after delisting must be skipped gracefully. If an open leg's instrument stops printing bars (delisted), close it at the last available bar.