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Hypotheses

BTC Spot Volatility-Targeted Regime-Filtered Long (BINANCE_SPOT, Daily, Continuous Inverse-Vol Exposure Scaling, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-ONLY, single-instrument, DAILY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT whose CORE mechanism is continuous VOLATILITY TARGETING (risk-scaling), not directional momentum timing. This is a direct implementation of the…

Hypothesis

A LONG-ONLY, single-instrument, DAILY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT whose CORE mechanism is continuous VOLATILITY TARGETING (risk-scaling), not directional momentum timing. This is a direct implementation of the analyst's repeated, explicit recommendation for the spot quota: 'a spot long-only fill needs a mechanism that fires frequently enough to populate OOS windows (continuous trend/breakout or vol-targeting long), not rare deep-drawdown entries.' Every drawdown-accumulation spot variant has now failed on……Show moreShow less

A LONG-ONLY, single-instrument, DAILY strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE_SPOT whose CORE mechanism is continuous VOLATILITY TARGETING (risk-scaling), not directional momentum timing. This is a direct implementation of the analyst's repeated, explicit recommendation for the spot quota: 'a spot long-only fill needs a mechanism that fires frequently enough to populate OOS windows (continuous trend/breakout or vol-targeting long), not rare deep-drawdown entries.' Every drawdown-accumulation spot variant has now failed on the same event-sparsity / OOS-empty / holdout-decay signature (the class is closed beyond its one deployed BTC-daily instance), so this deliberately uses the OPPOSITE structure: it is ALWAYS evaluating exposure and rebalances continuously, so walk-forward OOS windows are densely populated by construction. The strategy holds a long BTC position whose SIZE is scaled inversely to recent realized volatility toward a constant target risk level, and is gated OFF (to cash) only by a slow regime filter. Two complementary, well-documented sources of risk-adjusted edge: (1) VOL TARGETING — cutting exposure when realized vol spikes (the periods that contain crypto's sharpest drawdowns/crashes) and restoring it when vol normalizes raises Sharpe versus static buy-and-hold by truncating the worst left-tail days; (2) REGIME FILTER — only carrying exposure while BTC is above its long moving average removes the prolonged bear-market beta drag that depresses buy-and-hold Sharpe. CRITICAL DESIGN NOTES separating this from the closed families: NOT drawdown-accumulation (no rare deep-dip gate — exposure is continuous), NOT directional momentum/trend timing (the regime filter is a slow on/off bull gate, not a fast EMA-cross momentum bet that the session declared dead), NOT basis/carry/cross-venue, NOT COIN-M (engine-blocked), NOT HYPERLIQUID (BTC spot has 6+ years of history → robust walk-forward). Intentionally minimal: 3 tunables (target_vol, vol_lookback, sma_period).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.