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Hypotheses

BTC Range-Position Extreme Follow-Through — Long-Short, Trade the Data-Determined Continuation/Reversal After Price Reaches an EXTREME of Its Trailing N-Day High-Low Range, Vol-Filtered for Fees (Daily Bars, 2-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), daily bars, probing a distinct bars structure not covered by my three queued bars-probes: POSITION WITHIN THE TRAILING RANGE (a…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), daily bars, probing a distinct bars structure not covered by my three queued bars-probes: POSITION WITHIN THE TRAILING RANGE (a Williams %R / stochastic-style location), i.e. where the current close sits within the highest-high/lowest-low of the last N days. This is genuinely different from: the queued return-sign STREAK probe (consecutive-sign run-length), the queued CLOSE-LOCATION probe (position within a SINGLE bar's……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, single-instrument directional strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual), daily bars, probing a distinct bars structure not covered by my three queued bars-probes: POSITION WITHIN THE TRAILING RANGE (a Williams %R / stochastic-style location), i.e. where the current close sits within the highest-high/lowest-low of the last N days. This is genuinely different from: the queued return-sign STREAK probe (consecutive-sign run-length), the queued CLOSE-LOCATION probe (position within a SINGLE bar's range), the queued OBV probe (volume flow), the confluence template (L56 — no moving-average trend), and the regime-decayed convex family (magnitude/vol triggers). PREMISE (a clean, testable question): when BTC pushes to an EXTREME of its trailing N-day range (near the high or the low), does it CONTINUE (range-breakout momentum) or REVERSE (range-bound mean-reversion)? The strategy measures which dominates in-sample and trades it. This directly probes the CURRENT-regime character: if 2025 BTC is range-bound (the regime that decayed the convex continuation edges), extremes may REVERT; if trending, they CONTINUE — the data decides the sign, so the strategy adapts to whichever the sample supports without a free directional knob. NOT reversion-by-assumption (L53 — the sign is data-determined, not a fixed fade), NOT a squeeze/channel breakout (L54 — no volatility-compression precondition; it is a range-EXTREME location signal held multi-day), NOT confluence (L56), NOT microstructure/premium/carry/basis/options (dead/infra). To avoid the fee graveyard: only engage on EXTREME range-position (top/bottom decile) with elevated realized vol (so the implied move clears the ~0.10% round-trip), and hold multi-day. Bars-only → backtestable. 2 tunable parameters (range lookback N + vol filter; direction is data-determined) → low DOF, low deflated-Sharpe hurdle. Cadence moderate (~40-80/yr) → clears the ~100-trade floor. On BTC (sole recent-regime survivor). HONEST framing: range-position signals are classic and likely arbitraged; this is a low-cost one-backtest probe, expected to resolve quickly, and it doubles as a diagnostic of whether the current BTC regime is continuation- or reversion-dominated at range extremes. Risk: ~1.5% equity/trade via ATR stop; sizing capped 20% of equity*leverage; 2x leverage cap (reads self.config.leverage).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.