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Hypotheses

XRP COIN-M 4H Trend-Pullback Continuation ('one wave, three folds' band entry): Buy the 3-Day Low Inside a 20-Day Up-Move, Sell the 3-Day High Inside a 20-Day Down-Move, Exit on Pullback Completion / 2.5-ATR Stop / 5-Day Clock (XRPUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM, pure OHLCV, long-short, flat ~65-70%)

This hypothesis comes from the 'Band strategy' (波段策略) sub-module of TradeMan's Composite CTA system (FMZ #348225). The idea is that trends do not move in straight lines but in 'one wave, three folds' (一波三折). The system…

Hypothesis

This hypothesis comes from the 'Band strategy' (波段策略) sub-module of TradeMan's Composite CTA system (FMZ #348225). The idea is that trends do not move in straight lines but in 'one wave, three folds' (一波三折). The system trades the counter-moves inside an established multi-day trend, in the trend's direction. The author runs it on coin-margined contracts, with the same parameters on every market and position size scaled to each signal's volatility. The rest of the description is marketing with no stated mechanism……Show moreShow less

This hypothesis comes from the 'Band strategy' (波段策略) sub-module of TradeMan's Composite CTA system (FMZ #348225). The idea is that trends do not move in straight lines but in 'one wave, three folds' (一波三折). The system trades the counter-moves inside an established multi-day trend, in the trend's direction. The author runs it on coin-margined contracts, with the same parameters on every market and position size scaled to each signal's volatility. The rest of the description is marketing with no stated mechanism and is NOT used: dozens of undisclosed factor libraries, 'alternative' strategies, equity-curve adaptation, and a claimed 50-150% annualized return. Every return it claims is treated as unverified. This hypothesis is ONE sub-mechanism on ONE leg and ONE instrument: XRPUSD_PERP.BINANCE_CM (Binance COIN-M inverse perpetual), 4H bars, history 2020-09 to 2026-09, about 13,000 bars. The selection choices are stated explicitly (L122). Venue BINANCE_CM: the source names coin-margined contracts, COIN-M is 3.2% of experiments against a 5% target, and it has the lowest taker fee we model (~0.06% round trip). XRP: a top-5-liquidity COIN-M perp with 6 years of history. It is not BTC (62% corpus share) and not ETH (the earlier ETH COIN-M dual-timeframe run died overfit). 4H: the source holds 'days to weeks', and 4H gives about 6 decisions a day without sub-hourly fee drag. No supplementary feed is used, because COIN-M has none (L160). There is no regime gate beyond the trend definition the mechanism itself needs. Declared flat state: the strategy is flat whenever there is no active pullback signal, expected about 65-70% of the time. It is NOT always-in (L150). Sizing: risk 1.5% of equity per trade, with notional = 0.015*equity / (2.5*ATR%), capped at 1.5x equity (leverage 1.5 max). Inverse-contract note for the developer: BINANCE_CM alt contracts are 10 USD face each and PnL is in XRP. Size in contracts = round(target_usd_notional / 10), and skip the trade if that is under 1 contract.

Analysis

【复合CTA交易系统New】(多因子+多品种+多策略自适应公用版)|【Composite CTA Trading System New 】(Multi-factor + Multi-variety + Multi-strategy Adaptive Public Version)

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.