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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Non-Participation Continuation on Bybit: When BTC Makes a >=2.5-Sigma 4h Move and an Alt Perp Fails to Follow Its Beta by >=1.5 Residual Sigma, Bet the Divergence Widens for 24h (BTC-beta-hedged, 10 Bybit linear perps, 1H, long-short)

Event-driven, beta-hedged, long-short relative-value trade on BYBIT linear USDT perps (catalog '<BASE>USDT.BYBIT', 1-HOUR bars, pure OHLCV, history 2020-10/2021-10 to 2026-10, gap-checked: BTC 57k bars 0 gaps, LINK 1…

Hypothesis

Event-driven, beta-hedged, long-short relative-value trade on BYBIT linear USDT perps (catalog '<BASE>USDT.BYBIT', 1-HOUR bars, pure OHLCV, history 2020-10/2021-10 to 2026-10, gap-checked: BTC 57k bars 0 gaps, LINK 1 gap, XRP 0 gaps). Fixed universe of 10 pre-2021 alts (LINK, ADA, DOT, LTC, ATOM, XRP, BCH, ETC, TRX, XLM), under the lesson-173 cap of about 10 names, plus BTCUSDT.BYBIT as the market factor and hedge leg. Mechanism: a strong market-wide BTC move is a common shock that pushes market flow into every……Show moreShow less

Event-driven, beta-hedged, long-short relative-value trade on BYBIT linear USDT perps (catalog '<BASE>USDT.BYBIT', 1-HOUR bars, pure OHLCV, history 2020-10/2021-10 to 2026-10, gap-checked: BTC 57k bars 0 gaps, LINK 1 gap, XRP 0 gaps). Fixed universe of 10 pre-2021 alts (LINK, ADA, DOT, LTC, ATOM, XRP, BCH, ETC, TRX, XLM), under the lesson-173 cap of about 10 names, plus BTCUSDT.BYBIT as the market factor and hedge leg. Mechanism: a strong market-wide BTC move is a common shock that pushes market flow into every alt. An alt that does NOT follow its own trailing beta during that shock reveals idiosyncratic opposing pressure (a persistent seller during rallies, such as unlocks, treasury or miner supply, or a persistent buyer during selloffs). That pressure does not stop when the shock ends, so the residual keeps widening. This is residual CONTINUATION after non-participation, the opposite sign of the dead residual-reversal family (L113). The pre-study confirmed the sign: the naive 'laggard catches up' trade lost on every name. Pre-study, point-in-time, Bybit 1H, 2021-2026, 10 names, 4h windows, rolling 720h beta/sigma lagged one bar, entry at the next bar, non-overlapping per name. With BTC |4h ret| > 2.5 sigma and the alt's residual against the BTC direction < -1.5 sigma, the BTC-hedged residual over the next 24h averaged +0.447% of alt notional on 1457 events (naive t 4.2, overstated because events cluster on the same BTC shock). It was positive on 9 of 10 names (TRX flat), with years 2022/23/24/26 positive and 2021/25 negative. The same rule on Binance USD-M 1H (2020-2026) gave +0.395% on 1834 events, a cross-venue replication. The surface is monotone and smooth: gross rises with both thresholds (0.11% at k1.5/m1.0, 0.30% at k2.5/m1.0, 0.53% at k2.5/m2.0), so this is not a single-cell spike. Bybit is used to fill an under-represented venue (2.3% of the corpus) with clean multi-year history. No HL (L168), no COIN-M (L172), no calendar trigger (L179), no supplementary gate (L111).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.