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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

DOT/KSM Cointegrated Spread Mean-Reversion, Market-Neutral Long-Short (DOTUSDT.BINANCE + KSMUSDT.BINANCE USD-M, Daily Bars, Z-Score Entry/Exit, Half-Life-Gated, 3-Parameter)

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pairs trade on two assets with a genuine structural tether: Polkadot (DOT) and its canary network Kusama (KSM). Kusama is Polkadot's pre-production chain built on the same…

Hypothesis

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pairs trade on two assets with a genuine structural tether: Polkadot (DOT) and its canary network Kusama (KSM). Kusama is Polkadot's pre-production chain built on the same Substrate codebase, shares the governance/parachain/runtime-upgrade cadence, and its token's value is driven by the SAME parachain-slot-auction and staking demand cycle as DOT. That shared-origin economic linkage is the crypto analog of the LTC/BCH Bitcoin-fork tether — the kind of relationship that……Show moreShow less

A MARKET-NEUTRAL statistical-arbitrage pairs trade on two assets with a genuine structural tether: Polkadot (DOT) and its canary network Kusama (KSM). Kusama is Polkadot's pre-production chain built on the same Substrate codebase, shares the governance/parachain/runtime-upgrade cadence, and its token's value is driven by the SAME parachain-slot-auction and staking demand cycle as DOT. That shared-origin economic linkage is the crypto analog of the LTC/BCH Bitcoin-fork tether — the kind of relationship that produces a genuinely STATIONARY log-price spread rather than a spurious correlation. This is NOT a momentum/trend mechanism: it is mean-reversion of a cointegrated residual. It is deliberately a DIFFERENT FAMILY from the dual-timeframe momentum-confluence recipe that collided with my prior proposal (that idea bets on trend continuation; this bets on the spread snapping back to its equilibrium). Direction is long_short/market-neutral, filling the under-represented direction bucket, and the pair is completely untried in the factory (the tried/pipeline set covers single-name momentum on ADA/AVAX/BNB/BTC/ETH/LTC/NEAR/SOL/DOT/DOGE and an LTC/BCH spread; DOT/KSM as a cointegrated spread does not appear).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.