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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Hyperliquid ETH Perp — Trend Continuation with a Funding-Crowding BRAKE: Long-Short 4H Momentum That Is VETOED When Funding Is at a Positioning Extreme (Don't Chase an Over-Leveraged Move), Chandelier ATR Trailing Exit (HYPERLIQUID, 4H Bars, 3-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT directional TREND strategy on ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID (4H bars, ~2.3yr HL history — comfortably above the WF/holdout requirement, no sub-hourly HL history trap). It leans into the factory's…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT directional TREND strategy on ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID (4H bars, ~2.3yr HL history — comfortably above the WF/holdout requirement, no sub-hourly HL history trap). It leans into the factory's ONE demonstrated survivor class (directional momentum with trailing-stop winners — the BTC dual-TF book at Sharpe 1.99) but is NOT a fanout of that template: the signal structure is a single robust EMA-trend, and the genuinely new element is a crypto-native OVER-CROWDING BRAKE built from the……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT directional TREND strategy on ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID (4H bars, ~2.3yr HL history — comfortably above the WF/holdout requirement, no sub-hourly HL history trap). It leans into the factory's ONE demonstrated survivor class (directional momentum with trailing-stop winners — the BTC dual-TF book at Sharpe 1.99) but is NOT a fanout of that template: the signal structure is a single robust EMA-trend, and the genuinely new element is a crypto-native OVER-CROWDING BRAKE built from the Hyperliquid funding feed. The mechanism: take the trend, but REFUSE to enter (and exit early) when perpetual funding is at a positioning EXTREME in the same direction as the trade — i.e. do not buy an up-trend when longs are already paying rich funding (over-leveraged, reversal-prone), and do not short a down-trend when shorts are crowded (funding deeply negative). This is deliberately the OPPOSITE polarity to the dead OI-CONFIRMED breakout (which REQUIRED leveraged confirmation and overfit) and is NOT funding CARRY (no funding is harvested — funding is used only as a veto filter on a price-momentum trade, so the abandoned single-asset/basket carry economics do not apply). Fills three under-represented buckets at once: HYPERLIQUID (7.1% vs ≥20% target), long_short (14.2% vs push target), and a funding-data edge that is neither carry nor cross-sectional-rank (both of which are confirmed dead classes here).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.