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Hypotheses

KO/PEP Log-Price Cointegration Spread Reversion: Rolling-OLS Hedge Ratio, Enter at |resid| > 2 sigma, Exit Inside 1 sigma, Dollar-Neutral Long/Short on USEQ DAILY Bars

This is the one concrete rule in TradeMan's FMZ 'Neutral-Hedge Statistical Arbitrage (Pure-Alpha)' description (section 3.7), taken out of its all-market basket scanner and applied to one economically linked pair on…

Hypothesis

This is the one concrete rule in TradeMan's FMZ 'Neutral-Hedge Statistical Arbitrage (Pure-Alpha)' description (section 3.7), taken out of its all-market basket scanner and applied to one economically linked pair on the commission-free USEQ venue. The rule: fit ln(Y) = a + b*ln(X) + c; with sigma = std(c), sell Y and buy X when c > lambda*sigma, do the reverse when c < -lambda*sigma, and close when c comes back inside [-0.5*lambda*sigma, +0.5*lambda*sigma]. Y = PEP.USEQ and X = KO.USEQ. The pair is chosen a……Show moreShow less

This is the one concrete rule in TradeMan's FMZ 'Neutral-Hedge Statistical Arbitrage (Pure-Alpha)' description (section 3.7), taken out of its all-market basket scanner and applied to one economically linked pair on the commission-free USEQ venue. The rule: fit ln(Y) = a + b*ln(X) + c; with sigma = std(c), sell Y and buy X when c > lambda*sigma, do the reverse when c < -lambda*sigma, and close when c comes back inside [-0.5*lambda*sigma, +0.5*lambda*sigma]. Y = PEP.USEQ and X = KO.USEQ. The pair is chosen a priori on economic grounds rather than from the backtest: two global beverage and snack franchises with the same consumer-staples factor exposure, the same input costs, the same FX translation and the same rate sensitivity. It has been the textbook cointegration pair since well before this dataset's out-of-sample window. Everything is fitted point-in-time: at each daily close, a and b are re-estimated by OLS on the trailing N=250 sessions of log closes, and sigma is the std of those in-window residuals. Only information at or before the current bar is used. Legs are dollar-neutral: each leg gets 50% of equity notional (gross 1.0x, well inside Reg-T 2x). The beta-weighting is in the signal, not the sizing, to keep it to 2 parameters. The source's all-market scanning, Hurst ranking, maker/taker execution and 'index arbitrage' parts are NOT ported: the description gives no rule for them and no code, and scanning many names is the family that times out here (L173). The source's Engle-Granger ADF and Hurst filter is pre-registered as a SEPARATE variant B (trade only when the trailing-250 residual ADF p < 0.10), scored on its own. It is not part of the primary claim (L130). Expected flat share: about 60-70% of sessions. Why this does not break the lessons: L137 bans multi-leg neutral BOOKS (baskets and cross-venue carry). This is one pair on a zero-commission venue, where the extra leg costs about 0.02-0.05% instead of 0.10-0.20%. The prompt's equity section lists 'pairs within a sector (KO/PEP style)' as a proven archetype. USEQ holds 2.5% of the corpus and long_short 14.7%, so this adds to both under-represented buckets. The daily history (decades) supports about 150-250 lifetime round trips, where crypto pair histories give tens.

Analysis

【中性对冲统计套利New】(Pure-Alpha 梦幻版)|【Neutral-Hedge Statistical Arbitrage New】(Pure-Alpha dream version)

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.