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Hypotheses

ASX Bulk-Commodity & Energy Producer Peer-Relative Down-Shock Rebound: buy a non-gold Australian resource name (iron ore, base metals, lithium, rare earths, coal, oil & gas) at the next ASX open after a session whose beta-adjusted return fell >=2 sigma below its resource peer basket, fixed open-to-open clock (AUEQ 1-DAY, 13-name pre-registered panel disjoint from the promoted ASX gold-miner panel, long/flat, unlevered, same-date entries capped)

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). A breadth test of the peer-relative down-shock template (lesson L266) that was promoted on iteration 1 on ASX gold miners (288 trades, PF 1.19, DD 8.8%) and TSX miners…

Hypothesis

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). A breadth test of the peer-relative down-shock template (lesson L266) that was promoted on iteration 1 on ASX gold miners (288 trades, PF 1.19, DD 8.8%) and TSX miners (337 trades, PF 1.27), and failed on JPEQ banks/autos/insurers (0.072% net per trade). This panel moves to a different ASX sub-universe that shares NO names with the gold-miner panel: 13 non-gold resource producers listed throughout 2018-2026: BHP, RIO, FMG, S32, MIN, PLS, IGO, LYC, WDS, STO, WHC,……Show moreShow less

Original Research Lead hypothesis (not seeded). A breadth test of the peer-relative down-shock template (lesson L266) that was promoted on iteration 1 on ASX gold miners (288 trades, PF 1.19, DD 8.8%) and TSX miners (337 trades, PF 1.27), and failed on JPEQ banks/autos/insurers (0.072% net per trade). This panel moves to a different ASX sub-universe that shares NO names with the gold-miner panel: 13 non-gold resource producers listed throughout 2018-2026: BHP, RIO, FMG, S32, MIN, PLS, IGO, LYC, WDS, STO, WHC, BSL, CMM (all .AUEQ). The question tested is whether the commodity-producer version of the template, rather than the gold-specific version, carries over within the same venue. AUEQ is 0.0% of the corpus (1 prior experiment). SIGNAL (computed on each completed daily bar, close-to-close log returns): for name i, peer_t = equal-weight mean log return of the other 12 panel names that have a bar that session; beta_i = rolling 60-session cov(r_i, peer)/var(peer) known at t-1; residual_t = r_i,t - beta_i,t-1 * peer_t; z_t = residual_t / std(residual over the prior 60 sessions, excluding t). EVENT: z_t <= -z_entry (baseline 2.0). EXECUTION: a market order decided at the event bar's close fills at the NEXT ASX session open (platform next_open_fill, supported). EXIT: fixed clock, sell at the open of the session hold_sessions (baseline 5) sessions after the entry open; no stop-loss, no target. RISK CONTROL route (b): signal/time exit with capped sizing: 10% of equity per leg, at most 4 concurrent positions (max gross 40%, never levered; CASH account), at most 2 NEW entries on any single session date (ranked by most negative z when more qualify), a name already held is not re-entered. Pre-study (this Research Lead, OPEN-to-open forward returns on catalog bars 2018-01 to 2026-09, no costs, no concurrency cap): z<=-2.0 gives 767 events on 587 distinct dates; mean forward return +0.38% at 5 sessions (t 1.56), +0.28% at 3, +0.79% at 10 (t 2.28, hit 53%); z<=-2.5 gives 399 events / 337 dates, +0.67% at 5 sessions. Losing years at 5 sessions: 2023 (-0.28%) and 2024 (-0.93%). By name the edge sits in mid-caps (CMM, BSL, STO, IGO, WHC positive), while FMG, RIO, S32 and WDS were negative: the panel is NOT selected on that split and keeps all 13 names. Costs: AUEQ commission 0.0845% per side + ~4 bp half spread => ~0.25% round trip. At the frozen template's 5-session clock the gross 0.38% leaves only ~0.13% net, which is below 2x cost; at 10 sessions ~0.54% net. hold_sessions is therefore registered as tunable (3-10) and the baseline stays at the promoted template's 5 so the 10-session reading is visible as a horizon, not silently chosen. Universe caveat: the 13 names are today's large caps that were also listed in 2018, which is survivorship-flavoured (no ASX resource delisting in the panel); stated, not corrected. Pre-registered evidence counts: ~587 distinct event dates (~350-450 after the 2-per-date and 4-concurrent caps), ~105 months of history.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.