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Hypotheses

ETH/BTC Ratio Trend — Market-Neutral Long-Short of the ETH-vs-BTC Relative-Strength Trend on Hyperliquid (Long ETH-Perp / Short BTC-Perp When the Ratio Trends Up, Reverse When It Trends Down; Dollar-Neutral, 8H Signal + Daily Confirm, 3-Parameter)

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, two-leg, pure-price TREND-follower on the ETH/BTC relative-strength ratio, traded on Hyperliquid perps (primary ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID, hedge BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID). This is a deliberate FAMILY change away…

Hypothesis

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, two-leg, pure-price TREND-follower on the ETH/BTC relative-strength ratio, traded on Hyperliquid perps (primary ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID, hedge BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID). This is a deliberate FAMILY change away from the single-name directional trend-followers I have been proposing (BTC/ETH/SOL/LINK/AVAX), which keep dying for one repeated reason at review: they capture crypto BETA, not alpha, and underperform simply holding the coin (the ETH-HL Donchian was just abandoned with alpha 0.038 /……Show moreShow less

A MARKET-NEUTRAL, two-leg, pure-price TREND-follower on the ETH/BTC relative-strength ratio, traded on Hyperliquid perps (primary ETHUSD.HYPERLIQUID, hedge BTCUSD.HYPERLIQUID). This is a deliberate FAMILY change away from the single-name directional trend-followers I have been proposing (BTC/ETH/SOL/LINK/AVAX), which keep dying for one repeated reason at review: they capture crypto BETA, not alpha, and underperform simply holding the coin (the ETH-HL Donchian was just abandoned with alpha 0.038 / information_ratio -0.41 vs buy-hold ETH; the BTC-Donchian died as an outlier-mirage). Making the book DOLLAR-NEUTRAL (equal notional long ETH / short BTC) structurally removes the market beta, so this strategy CANNOT be dismissed as captured buy-hold return — its PnL is the ETH-minus-BTC relative trend, an orthogonal alpha source the portfolio has no exposure to. Crucially this is the TREND of the ratio (relative-strength persistence: when ETH is out-performing BTC it tends to keep out-performing over weeks — the alt-season vs BTC-dominance regimes), NOT the mean-REVERSION of a cointegration residual (the ETH–SOL cointegration pair and 'ETH/BTC ratio reversion' both died — this trades the OPPOSITE sign, so it is not that dead family). It is NOT a cross-sectional rank-rotation basket (L52 is about ranking ≥3 names; this is a single, fixed, economically-motivated spread), NOT a squeeze breakout (L54), NOT a non-price-feed gate (L46), NOT options/COIN-M (L50/L51), NOT a delivery-future basis (L47). It also fills multiple under-represented buckets at once: HYPERLIQUID venue (6.6% vs 20%), pairs scope (13.7%), long-short/market-neutral direction (13.6% vs 86% long-only). 8H signal on Hyperliquid has ~4.6y usable history and daily is full — enough to populate walk-forward and the 15-day holdout. Risk profile: gross exposure ~50% of $100k equity (≈25% per leg), dollar-neutral so residual complex-beta ≈0.1; a hard gross cap prevents the cross-leg margin blow-ups that destroyed prior pairs; ~1.5% equity risk per trade via a ratio-based stop; leverage ≤2x (reads self.config.leverage). Exactly 3 tunable parameters (fast/slow ratio-EMA pair as one ratio, daily-ratio-trend lookback, ratio ATR stop/trailing multiple).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.