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Hypotheses

Fresh 52-Week-High Anchor Break on Binance Spot Alts: buy a spot alt at the daily close that first exceeds its trailing 365-day closing high after at least 90 days without a new high, hold a fixed 10 days (36-name point-in-time panel incl. delisted, 1-DAY, long-only 1x, max 10 concurrent at 10%, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis, with the mechanism taken from George & Hwang (2004, Journal of Finance, 'The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing'): traders anchor on the 52-week high, so they sell into it and good…

Hypothesis

Original Research Lead hypothesis, with the mechanism taken from George & Hwang (2004, Journal of Finance, 'The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing'): traders anchor on the 52-week high, so they sell into it and good news is under-absorbed until price clears the anchor. Once it does, the continuation is under-priced. Nothing in the factory corpus tests 52-week-high or all-time-high anchoring; a title/FTS search for 52-week, all-time-high and anchoring returned nothing. The design is the event-plus-fixed-clock,……Show moreShow less

Original Research Lead hypothesis, with the mechanism taken from George & Hwang (2004, Journal of Finance, 'The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing'): traders anchor on the 52-week high, so they sell into it and good news is under-absorbed until price clears the anchor. Once it does, the continuation is under-priced. Nothing in the factory corpus tests 52-week-high or all-time-high anchoring; a title/FTS search for 52-week, all-time-high and anchoring returned nothing. The design is the event-plus-fixed-clock, flat-most-of-the-time form that L224 favours, on BINANCE_SPOT, the venue L192 ranks highest. It is a different mechanism from the factory's crowded families: it is not a shock absorption, not NR7, not dual-timeframe confluence, and not a cross-sectional rebalance. Single venue, BINANCE_SPOT (CASH, 1x, 0.20% taker round trip), 1-DAY bars, pure OHLCV, no supplementary feed. Universe (fixed candidate list, survivorship handled): 36 Binance spot USDT pairs that were listed before 2021 and were large caps then, including names delisted or collapsed since: ETH BNB XRP ADA LTC LINK DOGE TRX XLM ETC BCH DOT ATOM VET EOS NEO IOTA ZEC DASH XTZ ALGO FIL UNI AAVE SOL AVAX, plus QTUM ONT ZRX BAT ICX FTT, and the delisted XMR WAVES MATIC OMG (all have bars until their Binance delisting). At each bar a name is eligible only while is_listed() is true and it has at least lookback_days+1 daily bars (universe_at() / listed_since()); the base template closes a position at a delisting. LUNAUSDT is excluded on purpose: the Binance spot symbol spans the Terra collapse and the LUNA 2.0 relaunch, so its price series is not one asset. Event definition, per name, on daily closes: close[t] > max(close[t-lookback_days .. t-1]) (a new trailing-365-day closing high), AND the previous such new high on that name was at least min_gap_days bars ago (or never in the available history). That second condition is what makes it an anchor break: the name has spent at least a quarter below its yearly high, and today it clears it. Repeated new highs inside a running trend do not fire. Execution: a market order at the signal bar's close. The capability registry lists next_bar_open_fill as use_equivalent, and on a 24/7 venue the signal-bar close is the next bar's open, which is the substitution named here. Pre-study (fixed rules lookback 365, gap 90, measured on Binance spot daily closes for the 26 surviving names only, before costs, used ONLY to pre-register the firing rate per L238 and L224, not to accept the idea): 97 events from 2019 to 2026, on 83 distinct entry dates in 37 distinct calendar months. By year: 2019 2, 2020 19, 2021 22, 2022 0, 2023 16, 2024 28, 2025 7, 2026 3. The 2022 bear market produces no events at all, so the strategy is flat through it rather than losing in it. The forward 10-day close-to-close return had mean +9.4% and median +4.8%, interquartile -9.4% to +16.8%. The full panel with the 10 extra names should give roughly 110-140 events. The effective sample is the ~40 distinct entry months, not the trade count, and the analyst should read significance that way. Fee arithmetic: a 10-day hold of an alt that just cleared its yearly high moves several percent. Even capturing a third of the pre-study mean (about 3%) clears the 0.20% spot round trip 15 times over. Turnover is tiny: about 15-20 round trips per year at 10% of equity each. Risk control route (b) plus a protective stop. Exposure ends on a signal (the fixed time limit), each position is 10% of equity (never above 100%), and at most 10 positions are open at once (100% gross, unlevered spot). An intrabar protective stop sits stop_pct (15%) below the entry fill, so the worst stop loss is about 1.5% of equity per position. On the BINANCE_SPOT backtest and paper venue it is a platform-matched stop (reduce-only stop-market, triggered inside the bar). It is not an exchange-resting order, and the idea does not need one. Benchmark the analyst should apply (lesson 170 for long-only): equal-weight buy-and-hold of the same eligible panel over the same window. The claim is a much smaller drawdown than buy-and-hold, because the strategy holds nothing in bear markets, and a higher return per unit of exposure. The claim is NOT a higher total return than buy-and-hold in bull years. Risk profile (conservative): spot 1x. With 10 names each at about 90-130% annualized vol and high correlation at full book, realized strategy vol should be about 25-45%, inside the 60% band. Each 10% position contributes about 9-13% annualized vol, far under the 120% per-position cap.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.