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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

Cash-Financed Advance on OKX: Frozen-Rule Venue Transfer of the Spot/Perp Volume-Share Accumulation Signal, Measured Entirely Inside OKX (buy the OKX SPOT alt when OKX spot's share of spot+swap volume is >=1.5 sigma above its 90-day norm during a 77-day uptrend, fixed 5-day clock; 12 rule-selected names, 1-DAY, OKX swaps signal-only)

Original Research Lead hypothesis. This is a FRESH, frozen-rule venue-transfer test (L228) of the promoted 'Cash-Financed vs Leverage-Financed Advances' strategy (run 282f0af9, BINANCE_SPOT, 286 trades, avg trade…

Hypothesis

Original Research Lead hypothesis. This is a FRESH, frozen-rule venue-transfer test (L228) of the promoted 'Cash-Financed vs Leverage-Financed Advances' strategy (run 282f0af9, BINANCE_SPOT, 286 trades, avg trade 4.85%, Sharpe 1.57, DD 7.8%). In that strategy both the signal and the traded leg came from Binance. Here every input comes from a DIFFERENT exchange, OKX: the volume-share signal is built from OKX spot and OKX USDT-swap daily volume, and only the OKX SPOT leg is traded. If the claim that cash-financed……Show moreShow less

Original Research Lead hypothesis. This is a FRESH, frozen-rule venue-transfer test (L228) of the promoted 'Cash-Financed vs Leverage-Financed Advances' strategy (run 282f0af9, BINANCE_SPOT, 286 trades, avg trade 4.85%, Sharpe 1.57, DD 7.8%). In that strategy both the signal and the traded leg came from Binance. Here every input comes from a DIFFERENT exchange, OKX: the volume-share signal is built from OKX spot and OKX USDT-swap daily volume, and only the OKX SPOT leg is traded. If the claim that cash-financed advances persist is about who is buying, and not about one exchange's data, it has to reappear on OKX's own flow mix. If it does not, that weakens the paper strategy's premise, which is useful too. Results must be reported separately from the Binance strategy; nothing here is pooled with it. Mechanism: spot_share = OKX spot base volume / (OKX spot base volume + OKX swap base volume), same coin, same UTC day. A price advance during which the spot share of volume rises unusually is being paid for in cash. Coins leave exchange float into fully paid wallets, so there is no funding clock and no liquidation overhang, and that flow persists for days. An advance carried by swap volume is leverage-financed and unwinds mechanically. Universe (rule fixed before any return was examined): every non-BTC, non-ETH OKX USDT market that has BOTH OKX_SPOT and OKX swap 1-DAY history in the local catalog starting on or before 2021-01-31. That gives 12 names: ATOM, FIL, ETC, BCH, LINK, ADA, DOT, AVAX, SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC. Eight overlap the Binance universe and four are new (ATOM, FIL, ETC, BCH). Weak names are deliberately kept (ETC was negative in the pre-study). The 12 OKX swap instruments are VOLUME FEEDS ONLY and must never receive an order. Rules are frozen at the Binance strategy's optimized values: z-window 90 days, entry_z 1.5, trend lookback 77 days with trend_min 0, hold 5 days, inverse-volatility weights, max 11.5% per name, gross cap 92%. PRE-STUDY (local catalog, OKX 1-DAY, 2020-2026, gross, non-overlapping per name, fill at the signal close): 607 events on 415 distinct entry dates. Mean 5-day forward return +2.37%, median +0.10%, hit rate 50%. By year: 2020 +3.5%, 2021 +6.0%, 2022 -1.7%, 2023 +2.9%, 2024 +2.8%, 2025 -1.9%, 2026 +1.5%. Mean is positive on 11 of 12 names (ETC -1.0%). MATCHED CONTROL, same uptrend filter with no share condition: 2,637 events, mean +1.57%, median -0.22%. The share filter adds about +0.8% mean and +0.3% median per event. That is the incremental expectancy pre-registered here (L217). The edge is right-skewed: the mean far exceeds the median, and 2022 and 2025 (alt bear years) are negative. It is a risk-on amplifier, flat most of the time. Fee arithmetic: OKX spot taker round trip about 0.20% (0.10% per side) plus about 0.02% impact. Gross mean +2.37% leaves about +2.1% net per trade, roughly 10x cost. Even the incremental +0.8% over the control is 4x cost. Firing rate: about 100 events a year across the panel in both bull and recovery regimes, so this is not a crash-only trigger. Execution substitution: next_bar_open_fill is use_equivalent. Decisions are made on the closed UTC daily bar once all of that coin's spot and swap bars for the same close timestamp have arrived. Orders are market orders at that bar's close, which on a 24/7 venue equals the next bar's open. No stops are used and no exchange-resting order is needed. Diversity: OKX_SPOT is 0.2% of experiments and OKX 3.6%. Two venue suffixes make this cross-venue (10% vs a 15% target). No BTC or ETH, so it adds no corpus concentration. Pure OHLCV, no supplementary feed (L189). Data overlap (L237): every leg has daily bars from 2021-01-24 at the latest, giving more than 5.7 years of joint history with 607 events.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.