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Hypotheses

Maximum-Diversification Portfolio of SPY/TLT/GLD(+IBIT point-in-time), Monthly, 8% Volatility Cap (USEQ 1-DAY, long-only)

Faithful port of the Most Diversified Portfolio rule from Edén Wallberg & Karolin, 'Simple Portfolios that Deliver Consistent Decent Returns' (arXiv 2610.36491), §3.2 eq. (6)-(7), Appendix A, §6.2 Tables 13-14 and the…

Hypothesis

Faithful port of the Most Diversified Portfolio rule from Edén Wallberg & Karolin, 'Simple Portfolios that Deliver Consistent Decent Returns' (arXiv 2610.36491), §3.2 eq. (6)-(7), Appendix A, §6.2 Tables 13-14 and the proposed portfolio of §6.4 Table 25 (SPY/TLT/GLD/IBIT, reported SR 0.90, unverified). Each month-end solve min_y y'Cy s.t. sum(y)=1, y>=0 on the correlation matrix C of the investable assets, map back w = (y/sigma) / sum(y/sigma), then apply the paper's volatility control theta = min(1, 0.08 /……Show moreShow less

Faithful port of the Most Diversified Portfolio rule from Edén Wallberg & Karolin, 'Simple Portfolios that Deliver Consistent Decent Returns' (arXiv 2610.36491), §3.2 eq. (6)-(7), Appendix A, §6.2 Tables 13-14 and the proposed portfolio of §6.4 Table 25 (SPY/TLT/GLD/IBIT, reported SR 0.90, unverified). Each month-end solve min_y y'Cy s.t. sum(y)=1, y>=0 on the correlation matrix C of the investable assets, map back w = (y/sigma) / sum(y/sigma), then apply the paper's volatility control theta = min(1, 0.08 / sqrt(w'Sigma w)) and hold theta*w in assets, the rest cash. IBIT.USEQ enters only after 126 sessions of its own listing history (mid-2024); the paper back-filled IBIT with bitcoin prices from 2017, which we cannot splice into a USEQ instrument, so for 2005-2024 this is the SPY/TLT/GLD MDP of Table 13 (reported SR 0.82) - stated deviation. Covariance estimator, used by every rule that needs one (paper §4.2 and Appendix A, Table 17): daily simple returns from the 1-DAY USEQ closes; per-asset EWMA volatility with half-life hvar_halflife (paper 42 sessions); standardize each return by the previous day's EWMA vol and clip the standardized value at +/-4 (the paper winsorizes but gives no level: our choice); EWMA second-moment matrix of the standardized returns with half-life hcov_halflife (paper 126), rescaled to unit diagonal = correlation C; Sigma = D_sigma C D_sigma, annualized x252. The paper then fits a k=10 statistical factor model by EM on its 59-ETF universe; with at most 16 assets we use the EWMA matrix directly (the paper's Table 18 reports the simple EWMA estimator within 0.01 Frobenius distance of the factor model and calls it a fully reasonable substitute for small universes) - a named substitution. Only observations up to the decision bar are used. Execution: decisions are made on the close of the LAST session of each calendar month (use src.strategies.helpers.sessions / the platform calendar, never hard-coded dates) and fill at the next session's open (platform next_open_fill on USEQ; the paper trades at the start of day t at the previous close, which is the same information set). Orders are whole-share market orders sized to target_weight x account equity; sells are sent before buys so cash covers the purchases. Leverage 1.0 (the Reg-T 2x margin is NOT used), long-only, no shorts; unallocated capital sits as cash. An asset is investable only once it has >=126 sessions of history (paper H_min) - point-in-time; nothing is bought before it lists.

Analysis

Simple Portfolios that Deliver Consistent Decent Returns

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.