Alt-Market Compression-Break Breadth Rebound: buy an 8-name OKX SPOT alt basket for 3 days on days when >=4 of 22 OKX USDT swaps close below the low of their own NR7 day (OKX swap breadth signal -> OKX_SPOT execution, 1-DAY, flat ~85% of the time, long-only 1x)

Mechanism: a daily CLOSE below the low of an NR7 day (the narrowest high-low range of the last 7 days) runs the stops that sit under a tight range. The factory has promoted single-name versions of this on four venues (Bybit perps, OKX swaps, Binance spot, Hyperliquid). Before writing this hypothesis the Research Lead decomposed that edge on OKX daily bars (22 USDT swaps, 2020-08 to 2026-10, non-overlapping events). The per-name NR7 downside-break long earned +1.37% over 3 days (2,204 events). Its BTC-beta-hedged residual was only +0.08%, with a median of -0.34%. Over the same 3 days BTC itself rose +1.17%. The promoted 'compression trap' is therefore almost entirely a MARKET-WIDE rebound, not an idiosyncratic one. This hypothesis trades that finding directly: it uses NR7 downside breaks as a cross-sectional BREADTH gauge of coordinated stop-run capitulation across the alt market, and expresses it as one basket trade instead of one trade per name. A hedged version is ruled out (no residual), and so is a short mirror (an NR7 upside break shorted for 3 days measured -0.31% mean on the same 22 names, consistent with lesson L230). SIGNAL UNIVERSE (signal only, never traded; pre-registered and chosen for OKX daily history from 2020, not for performance): DOT, ATOM, ETC, FIL, UNI, BCH, NEAR, AAVE, TRX, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, LTC, XLM, ALGO, 1INCH, AXS, BAT USDT swaps on OKX, 1-DAY bars. BTC is excluded for corpus concentration. TRADED BASKET: 8 OKX SPOT pairs with OKX spot daily history from 2020: XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, DOT, LTC, ATOM, BCH (ETH and TRX spot bars exist only from 2026-09, so they were left out of the basket on data grounds). Venue choice: OKX_SPOT is the least-used venue in the corpus (0.1%), and long-only no-leverage strategies belong on spot. Point in time: a signal name counts toward breadth only once it has at least 30 days of OKX history (listed_since) while is_listed. A basket leg trades only while it is listed. The signal is computed only on days with at least 10 eligible signal names. OKX keeps no delisted swaps, so residual survivorship bias remains in the signal universe. Execution: decisions are made on the completed daily bar (bar timestamp = close at 00:00 UTC). The engine fills a bar-close market order at that bar's close, which on a 24/7 market equals the next bar's open; this is the registered equivalent of a next-bar-open fill. FEE ARITHMETIC (OKX spot 0.10% taker per side = 0.20% round trip). Research Lead fixed-rule measurement, used to shape the rule and not as an acceptance test: on the traded 8-name OKX_SPOT basket with the 22-swap breadth signal, min_breaks=4 and a 3-day hold gave 198 non-overlapping events, a mean of +1.05% NET of the 0.20% round trip (median +1.13%, win rate 58%). Six of seven calendar years were positive; 2025 was -0.5%. INCREMENTAL EXPECTANCY OF THE SIGNAL (lesson L217): the same basket held for 3 days unconditionally earns +0.56% gross, about +0.36% net. The breadth trigger adds about +0.7% per event. The dose-response is roughly monotone: on the swap basket the mean 3-day return was +0.87% at >=1 break, +1.11% at >=3, +1.26% at >=4 and +1.42% at >=6. The neighbouring cells (k=3..6, hold 3) were all +0.97% to +1.06% net, so the result is not a single-cell spike. Buy-and-hold comparison (lesson L170): an unhedged buy-and-hold of this alt basket had drawdowns above 80% in 2021-22. At 60% gross exposure the measured event book drew down 27%; the 50% gross exposure fixed here should bring that to about 23%. Derived by the Research Lead from the factory's own promoted NR7 compression-trap panels and the decomposition described above; there is no external source.