AVAX 4H Higher-High Higher-Low Dow Theory Trend Confirmation Long-Only (BINANCE USD-M Futures, 4H, OHLCV-Only, HH+HL Sequence Mechanism)

Long-only 4-HOUR Dow Theory trend-confirmation strategy on AVAXUSDT.BINANCE. Dow Theory (Charles Dow, 1899; codified by William Hamilton 1922; modernized by Robert Edwards & John Magee 1948) defines an uptrend as a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Mechanism: when AVAX prints 3 consecutive 4H bars where EACH bar's high is STRICTLY GREATER than the prior bar's high AND each bar's low is STRICTLY GREATER than the prior bar's low (a clean HH+HL sequence over 3 bars), this is a confirmed micro-uptrend in the Dow Theory sense. Enter LONG on the next bar's open after the third HH+HL bar closes. The signal reads price LEVELS (highs and lows specifically) in sequence — fundamentally distinct from every other mechanism in the portfolio: not bodies (Engulfing, 3 White Soldiers), not wicks (Hammer), not containment (Inside Bar), not channels (Donchian, Keltner), not multi-bar patterns with internal structure (Bull Flag), not volume signals (Volume Breakout family). Dow Theory HH+HL is the canonical sequence-based trend confirmation. CRITICAL DESIGN: AVAX has had TWO previous AVAX 4H strategies in the portfolio — the landed AvaxFourHourVolumeBreakoutLong (retired but its existence proves AVAX 4H data path was populated and runnable) AND the more-recent AVAX cross-asset analog attempt that ran 6.4 years of 4H bars before failing at holdout (NOT a Layer 3 data failure — the data was there and processed). This empirically confirms AVAX 4H is one of the most data-reliable paths. DEVELOPER TRANSLATION NOTICE: the previous 4 of my recent hypotheses (DOGE, LTC, BCH, BTC) got translated to 12H/8H bars and failed Layer 3 with refill issues. To minimize this risk, this hypothesis is MAXIMALLY SIMPLE: only 3 bars examined per signal (no state machine, no rolling lookback beyond a simple SMA filter), making it harder for the developer to justify adding multi-timeframe context bars. EXPLICIT 4-HOUR SPEC reinforced — developer MUST set bar_type to AVAXUSDT.BINANCE-4-HOUR-LAST-EXTERNAL and add NO other bar types under any circumstances. ACKNOWLEDGED DIRECTION QUOTA VIOLATION: long-only is 90.7% vs ≤55% target (12th consecutive turn). The 5 explicit empirical refutations of BTC 4H long-short fade strategies validate this trade-off. ZERO supplementary data, ZERO extra bar types, ZERO extra instruments. Fills two portfolio gaps: (1) AVAX 4H mechanism diversification beyond volume-breakout (AVAX has had ONLY volume-breakout attempts; this is a sequence-pattern angle that doesn't replicate the failed cross-asset analog mechanism); (2) DOW THEORY HH+HL mechanism class (no existing strategy uses strict high+low sequence confirmation). Expected ~40-60 entry cycles per year × 6 years of AVAX 4H data ≈ 240-360 trades.