Hypotheses
ADA 4H Volume Absorption Long — HARD-LOCKED PARAMETERS (No Optimization Resubmit Per Analyst Directive)
DIRECT ANALYST-PRESCRIBED RESUBMISSION of the AdaVolumeAbsorptionBreakout strategy with parameters HARD-LOCKED at the iter-2 pre-optimization defaults. The PRIOR submission's optimization phase actively destroyed a…
Hypothesis
DIRECT ANALYST-PRESCRIBED RESUBMISSION of the AdaVolumeAbsorptionBreakout strategy with parameters HARD-LOCKED at the iter-2 pre-optimization defaults. The PRIOR submission's optimization phase actively destroyed a genuinely-working strategy: pre-opt Sharpe 1.73 / PF 1.28 / max DD 7.57% / 5-of-7 years positive INCLUDING modern regime (2024 flat, 2025 +3.73%, 2026 +2.39% YTD) — the ONLY ADA 4H strategy this session with positive 2025+2026 returns. After optimization, holdout Sharpe collapsed to -3.84. The……Show moreShow less
DIRECT ANALYST-PRESCRIBED RESUBMISSION of the AdaVolumeAbsorptionBreakout strategy with parameters HARD-LOCKED at the iter-2 pre-optimization defaults. The PRIOR submission's optimization phase actively destroyed a genuinely-working strategy: pre-opt Sharpe 1.73 / PF 1.28 / max DD 7.57% / 5-of-7 years positive INCLUDING modern regime (2024 flat, 2025 +3.73%, 2026 +2.39% YTD) — the ONLY ADA 4H strategy this session with positive 2025+2026 returns. After optimization, holdout Sharpe collapsed to -3.84. The analyst's explicit prescription (verbatim from the failure-pattern entry): 'resubmit this hypothesis with parameters HARD-LOCKED at the iter-2 default values... Skip the optimization phase entirely. The pre-opt defaults ARE the deployable configuration. Hand-tuned defaults sometimes beat Bayesian optimization when the trade count is below the parameter-count-squared threshold for stable estimation.' THIS HYPOTHESIS FORMALIZES THAT DIRECTIVE. The mechanism: detect 4H bars with high relative volume (volume > 1.5× rolling 20-bar avg) AND small body (|close-open|/range < 0.35) — these are 'absorption bars' where aggressive flow was absorbed by passive liquidity. When a subsequent bar closes ABOVE the absorption bar's high AND price is above SMA(50), enter LONG. Exit on 7% profit target, 3.5% stop loss, or absorption signal aging out. ALL PARAMETERS ARE FIXED — no Optuna optimization, no walk-forward parameter selection. The strategy MUST use these exact values: volume_mult=1.5, body_ratio_max=0.35, trend_sma_window=50, volume_window=20, absorption_max_age=5, stop_loss_pct=0.035, take_profit_pct=0.07. This is the analyst-validated deployable configuration. THE DEVELOPER MUST IMPLEMENT WITH ZERO PARAMETER RANGES IN THE OPTIMIZATION SEARCH SPACE (or alternatively, all min==max for each parameter so Optuna has nothing to explore). This is the rare case where 'just use the defaults' is the correct decision — verified by 6.3-year backtest with Sharpe 1.73 and positive recent-regime performance, the highest-quality result of the entire ADA 4H attempt sequence (1-of-9). Strategy belongs in the leverage-book complement to my prior crypto-native-signal strategies (BtcLiquidationCascadeReversal, BtcOiSpikeDirectionalReversal, BtcSmartMoneyRetailDivergence, BtcPremiumIndexExtremeReversal) — adds an alt-coin volume-flow component to the BTC-dominated portfolio.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.