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LINK Daily Hammer Reversal Long with 200-SMA Bull Regime Filter

A long-only single-instrument SINGLE-BAR CANDLESTICK-PATTERN strategy on LINKUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'hammer' (or…

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument SINGLE-BAR CANDLESTICK-PATTERN strategy on LINKUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'hammer' (or bullish pin bar) — a single-bar formation documented by Steve Nison (Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 1991) and extensively tested by Al Brooks (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar). The hammer is defined by specific geometric proportions of a single daily bar: a long lower shadow, a small body, and……Show moreShow less

A long-only single-instrument SINGLE-BAR CANDLESTICK-PATTERN strategy on LINKUSDT perpetual futures using daily bars and OHLCV-only data, with a 200-SMA bull regime filter. The trigger is the classic 'hammer' (or bullish pin bar) — a single-bar formation documented by Steve Nison (Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, 1991) and extensively tested by Al Brooks (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar). The hammer is defined by specific geometric proportions of a single daily bar: a long lower shadow, a small body, and a close near the bar's high — visually resembling a hammer. This represents a within-bar tail-rejection event: sellers pushed price materially lower during the day, but buyers absorbed all that supply and drove price back up to close near the high — a textbook supply-exhaustion signature occurring within a single bar's worth of trading flow. This is mechanistically NOVEL within the portfolio: no existing strategy fires on a single-bar tail-rejection signal. EthDailyBullishEngulfingLong fires on a 2-bar engulfing relationship (requires a specific prior-bar relationship); SolDailyInsideDayBreakoutLong fires on 2-bar compression (range containment); EthDailyConsecutiveDownDayPullbackLong fires on a multi-bar count of bearish events; the drawdown/oscillator strategies measure continuous statistics. None capture within-bar rejection geometry. LINK 1D timeframe is chosen because (a) LINK 1D data path is empirically the most-cached for LINK (used by LinkDailyMultiWeekTrendContinuationLong at Sharpe 2.55 paper-trading), (b) candlestick patterns have their canonical tested-since-1991 statistical foundation at the daily timeframe, NOT intraday, (c) LINK has well-documented multi-cycle volatility-and-rejection dynamics (oracle-protocol news cycles produce intraday spikes-and-recoveries that resolve as hammer formations on daily bars), (d) LINK is currently UNDERUTILIZED in the portfolio (only 1 LINK strategy), and adding a reversal-pattern strategy diversifies LINK's existing trend-continuation coverage with an orthogonal reversal-pattern signal. Only 3 explicit parameters (regime SMA period, lower-shadow-to-body ratio threshold, stop-loss pct) — minimum-parameter portfolio addition.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.