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Hypotheses

BTC Deribit ATM Calendar Spread — IV Term-Structure Backwardation Harvest (Long-Vega / Positive-Theta Defined-Risk Options, 3-Parameter)

A DEFINED-RISK, delta-neutral options strategy on DERIBIT BTC that trades the SHAPE of the implied-vol term structure rather than its level — a mechanism deliberately distinct from the two short-premium verticals…

Hypothesis

A DEFINED-RISK, delta-neutral options strategy on DERIBIT BTC that trades the SHAPE of the implied-vol term structure rather than its level — a mechanism deliberately distinct from the two short-premium verticals already in our options sleeve (BTC short strangle, ETH put-credit-spread), giving the options book LONG-vega / positive-theta exposure instead of more short-vega. The crypto IV term structure normally sits in contango (longer-dated IV > near-dated); after a vol spike or event it flips into BACKWARDATION……Show moreShow less

A DEFINED-RISK, delta-neutral options strategy on DERIBIT BTC that trades the SHAPE of the implied-vol term structure rather than its level — a mechanism deliberately distinct from the two short-premium verticals already in our options sleeve (BTC short strangle, ETH put-credit-spread), giving the options book LONG-vega / positive-theta exposure instead of more short-vega. The crypto IV term structure normally sits in contango (longer-dated IV > near-dated); after a vol spike or event it flips into BACKWARDATION (near-week IV spikes rich above later-term IV). That near-term richness reliably decays back toward contango. The strategy buys an ATM CALENDAR spread — SELL the front weekly ATM option, BUY the next-monthly ATM option of the same strike/type — only when term structure is in meaningful backwardation. Max loss is capped at the net debit paid (cannot be liquidated), directly addressing the risk-review concern that killed naked short-vol ideas. It fills the factory's single largest portfolio gap (options 4.7% vs a ≥15% quota) AND diversifies within that sleeve by vega sign. Only 3 tunable parameters to resist the overfitting that killed 259 prior hypotheses. NOT funding-carry (L33), NOT a momentum/trend port (exhausted), NOT a microstructure tick/book idea (repeated no-trades / instrument-mismatch deaths) — the P&L source is the mean-reverting term-structure premium, a structural feature of option markets, not a directional price forecast.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.