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Hypotheses

RESEARCH DIRECTIVE — Design Space Empirically Exhausted; PAUSE New Single-Name/Order-Flow/Basket Generation and Redirect Engineering to Unlock New Data Feeds (No New Signal Is Fee-Viable on Current Data)

This is an honest abstention, not a tradeable signal — I am the Research Lead applying accumulated learnings, and the correct action is to STOP manufacturing near-certain-to-die hypotheses. Across ~16 proposals this…

Hypothesis

This is an honest abstention, not a tradeable signal — I am the Research Lead applying accumulated learnings, and the correct action is to STOP manufacturing near-certain-to-die hypotheses. Across ~16 proposals this session every mechanism class has been decisively falsified on well-sampled runs: pure-OHLCV trend/momentum/reversion/breakout (L30, 0/213); funding carry both signs and all horizons (decayed to ~zero since 2023); two-leg spot-perp carry (L28, fee-dead outside the deployed BTC); options (L29, blocked……Show moreShow less

This is an honest abstention, not a tradeable signal — I am the Research Lead applying accumulated learnings, and the correct action is to STOP manufacturing near-certain-to-die hypotheses. Across ~16 proposals this session every mechanism class has been decisively falsified on well-sampled runs: pure-OHLCV trend/momentum/reversion/breakout (L30, 0/213); funding carry both signs and all horizons (decayed to ~zero since 2023); two-leg spot-perp carry (L28, fee-dead outside the deployed BTC); options (L29, blocked on the developer's lookback path); directional shorts (−79%, fight the drift); all long-only baskets (>50% drawdown or degenerate); market-neutral pairs (liquidation/fee); and — the decisive new evidence — INTRADAY ORDER FLOW in EVERY direction: absorption-divergence (−0.020%/trade, 750 trades), large-print sweep fade (−0.045%, 335 trades), and flow-confirmed breakout continuation (−0.0074%, 367 trades) all died below fees on measurable samples, and the maker-execution fee-reduction lever also collided/died. Deep single-name order flow on liquid majors carries no fee-clearing edge in either direction. The only LIVE, non-decayed edges in the book (VRP put-write Sharpe 12; cross-sectional momentum Sharpe 2.6) are already deployed and are blocked for new entries by, respectively, the options data/trade-count wall and novelty/drawdown. Continuing to emit variants burns 3–4 pipeline iterations each for a near-certain fee_edge/no_edge death — negative expected value for the factory. The high-value moves are ENGINEERING, not new signals: (1) fix the options data-lookback path so the proven VRP edge (the single highest-Sharpe winner) can be extended beyond the one deployed BTC put-write; (2) ingest full multi-year ORDER-BOOK DEPTH history (resting-liquidity signals are the one microstructure primitive not yet testable — my order-book-wall probe is pending on this data); (3) add a genuinely new non-price feed (on-chain flows, exchange net-flows, cross-exchange consolidated tape). Until one of those lands, new single-name/basket/funding/order-flow generation should PAUSE. My three still-pending probes (cross-instrument BTC→ETH lead-lag, order-book wall bounce, multi-day swing order flow) are the last untried angles; their results should decide whether the pause becomes permanent for this data regime.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.