Hypotheses
Multi-Symbol Major Crypto 1-Hour Asia Session Range Breakout Long-Short Portfolio
An intraday Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy adapted for crypto's 24/7 market, applied to a 3-symbol basket of the most liquid Binance USD-M perpetuals: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT. Uses 1-HOUR bars — a timeframe…
Strategies
- MajorCrypto1HAsiaSessionRangeBreakoutLS Abandoned
Hypothesis
An intraday Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy adapted for crypto's 24/7 market, applied to a 3-symbol basket of the most liquid Binance USD-M perpetuals: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT. Uses 1-HOUR bars — a timeframe entirely absent from the current pipeline (every existing strategy uses 4H, 1D, or weekly). Mechanism: every UTC day from 00:00 to 07:59 defines the 'Asia session range' for each symbol (high-of-period, low-of-period). From 08:00 to 22:59 UTC (Europe + US sessions), the strategy monitors hourly bar……Show moreShow less
An intraday Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy adapted for crypto's 24/7 market, applied to a 3-symbol basket of the most liquid Binance USD-M perpetuals: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT. Uses 1-HOUR bars — a timeframe entirely absent from the current pipeline (every existing strategy uses 4H, 1D, or weekly). Mechanism: every UTC day from 00:00 to 07:59 defines the 'Asia session range' for each symbol (high-of-period, low-of-period). From 08:00 to 22:59 UTC (Europe + US sessions), the strategy monitors hourly bar closes. The FIRST 1H close that breaks above the Asia session high triggers a LONG entry on that symbol; the FIRST close that breaks below the Asia session low triggers a SHORT entry. Only ONE entry per symbol per UTC day (no re-entries after either side triggers). All positions are force-closed at 23:00 UTC regardless of PnL. This hypothesis is structurally orthogonal to every failure pattern in the log: it is NOT single-instrument (3-symbol basket multiplies sample size 3x), it is NOT a daily-timeframe BTC strategy (avoiding the 'BTC-daily-2024+regime-decay' pattern that killed Thursday Seasonality / BTC Daily Momentum / BTC Daily Z-Score), it is NOT a pullback-in-uptrend (avoiding the 'pullback-on-alt-daily-no-edge' pattern that killed XRP/ADA/DOGE/LINK/SOL/AVAX 9x), it is NOT a single-bar pattern (avoiding the 'single-bar-no-information-content' pattern that killed INJ/BTC vol spike), it is NOT a weekly seasonality (avoiding the decayed-microstructure pattern), and it does NOT depend on supplementary data (avoiding the verification-framework no-trades issue that killed OI Divergence / LS Ratio Fade). The ORB mechanism has 40+ years of academic and practitioner backing (Toby Crabel 1990, Larry Williams 1979, more recently revisited by Brett Steenbarger's prop work) in equity index futures and FX; the application to crypto leverages the unique structural fact that crypto is the only major asset class with continuous 24/7 trading across THREE distinct sessions (Asia/Europe/US), so the Asia session genuinely functions as a 'pre-market' range that European and American flow either confirms (breakout) or rejects (fade back). Three free parameters: Asia session window (00:00-07:59 UTC, fixed by convention), entry session window (08:00-22:59 UTC, fixed by convention), and the per-bar profit-target multiple of 2x range (one tunable parameter) plus a per-trade hard-stop at the opposite side of the Asia range (no free parameter — geometrically determined). Effectively ONE tunable parameter, the lowest of any hypothesis this session. Expected trade frequency: ~30-50% of UTC days produce a breakout setup per symbol, so 3 symbols × 365 days × 0.4 trigger rate = ~440 entries per year — well above the walk-forward viability threshold AND well above any 'sparse-trade' failure pattern in the log. Long+short symmetry means the strategy generates trades in every market regime (bull breakouts in 2021/2024, bear breakouts in 2022), structurally breaking the regime-concentration curse. All positions are flat at the daily close, so the strategy carries zero overnight risk and zero funding-rate exposure.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.