OKX Swap Daily Volume-Confirmed Down-Shock Absorption Panel, Frozen-Rule Venue Transfer With a Bear Year Included: buy an OKX USDT swap at the close of a <=-2.5-sigma, >=1-sigma-volume UTC day, fixed 2-day clock, 21 pre-2021 names, max 8 concurrent at 8% each (OKX 1-DAY, long-only event trade, flat most of the time)

Original Research Lead hypothesis. It tests the promoted Hyperliquid daily down-shock absorption panel (run 7710f417: 191 trades, avg trade 2.49%, PF 2.55, Sharpe 0.88, DD 8.0%) as a FRESH test on a different venue and a longer history (lesson L228: freeze the source rules and report the destination separately). The rules are frozen exactly as they were on HL: 60-day lookback, shock_z <= -2.5, volume_z >= 1.0, 2-day clock, 8% per leg, at most 8 concurrent. Only the venue and universe change. Why this test is informative and not a cosmetic copy: (1) OKX is 3.5% of the corpus against a >=5% quota. (2) OKX USDT swap daily history starts in 2020, while HL's traded history starts in 2023-03. The HL result has never been through a sustained bear market. This run includes 2021-05 and the whole of 2022 (LUNA, 3AC, FTX), which is exactly the regime the HL write-up named as the weak spot. (3) It follows L224/L230: a long-side, flat-most-of-the-time absorption event with a fixed clock and no short arm. Mechanism: a UTC day that closes with an unusually large drop on unusually high volume is dominated by price-insensitive sellers (cross-margin liquidations, auto-deleveraging, stop cascades, retail de-risking). That pushes the close below where discretionary liquidity clears, and a patient buyer is paid by a partial rebound over the next 1-2 days. The HL controls showed the premium is mostly the market-wide crash rebound. A BTC-hedged version cut it by about 2/3. A quick check of the idiosyncratic, BTC-hedged trigger on OKX spot alts also came out negative (232 events, mean hedged 3-day forward -0.40%). So the design stays UNHEDGED and long-only, and its risk is the sustained bear leg. That risk is stated, not hidden. UNIVERSE (point in time, fixed before any return was examined): BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, AVAX, LINK, LTC, BCH, ATOM, DOT, ADA, XRP, NEAR, UNI, AAVE, FIL, ETC, TRX, XLM, COMP, SUSHI as <BASE>USDT.OKX swaps (EOS dropped because it has no local daily history). A name is eligible on a day only when is_listed() is true AND it has at least `lookback` prior daily bars with volume > 0. Survivorship residual: OKX keeps no delisted swaps, so the universe is limited to names still listed today. All 21 are large, long-lived names, so the bias is small but non-zero, and it is named here. PRE-REGISTERED EVENT COUNT (local catalog OKX 1-DAY, rolling stats from past bars only, non-overlapping per name, 0.12% round trip charged, no concurrency cap, so this is an event count and NOT the strategy result): 590 events on 140 DISTINCT event dates, 2020-2026 (lesson L238: the distinct dates are the real sample, because crash days fire on many names at once). Mean net 2-day forward +0.90% per event, median +0.97%. Per-year mean per event: 2020 +4.1%, 2021 +1.1%, 2022 -4.0%, 2023 +1.2%, 2024 +2.0%, 2025 +2.7%, 2026 +2.1%. 2022 is negative, as the mechanism predicts for a sustained bear leg, and the 8-name cap is what bounds it. Lesson-170 drawdown comparison: equal-weight buy-and-hold of this universe drew down more than 80% in 2021-22. This strategy is in the market roughly 5-10% of days, at most 64% gross. Execution substitution (capability next_bar_open_fill = use_equivalent): entries and exits are market orders at the signal bar's close, which on this 24/7 venue is the next bar's open. Risk-control route (b): time exit with capped sizing (8% of equity per leg, at most 8 legs, 64% gross maximum, 1x, no leverage). No stop is added, matching the frozen source rule. Worst case per trade: an 8% leg that loses 40% in 2 days costs 3.2% of equity, inside the 15% max_trade_loss limit.