ETH Variance-Risk-Premium Regime Long on the Binance USD-M Perp: Hold ETHUSDT.BINANCE While Deribit ETH DVOL Minus 7-Day Realized Vol Is in the Top 30% of Its Trailing 90 Days, Exit When It Falls Below the Median, One Decision per Day at 00:00 UTC, Flat ~60% of the Time (1H bars + deribit_dvol, long-only, 2 thresholds)

Re-routing of a hypothesis that was never measured. The earlier 'ETH VRP Regime Long on Deribit's Own Linear Perp' (ETH_USDC-PERPETUAL.DERIBIT) died with options_no_option_trades: the pipeline treated the DERIBIT venue as an options strategy and aborted because no option leg traded. It produced no edge verdict. This version keeps the mechanism and trades the most liquid ETH linear perp, ETHUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M, 0.05% taker). The signal is the supplementary key `deribit_dvol`, which supp_collector loads by base currency for any ETH primary (loaders['deribit_dvol'] -> load_deribit_dvol(dir, deribit_underlying_currency(base))). This is not signal-on-A / trade-B (L143): DVOL is the options-implied 30-day vol of the same ETH price that the perp tracks. Mechanism (instrument stripped): hold the underlying long when option buyers pay an unusually large premium of implied over realized volatility, and go flat when that premium compresses. How this differs from the abandoned DVOL runs: 'BTC IV-regime trend' used the IV level as a gate on a trend signal, and 'BTC IV extreme reversal' faded IV spikes, long-short. Here the input is the IV-minus-RV spread, there is no price-trend component and there is no short side. In the pre-study the short side had PF 0.88-1.02 on ETH and 0.51-0.60 on BTC, so it is excluded. POINT-IN-TIME PRE-STUDY (2026-09-29, catalog ETHUSDT.BINANCE 1H plus dvol_ETH.parquet stamped at hour-close, 0.05%/side cost, 1x): daily decision at 00:00 UTC, VRP = DVOL - annualized 168h RV, p = the fraction of the prior 90 daily VRP values below today's. - Enter at p>=0.70, exit at p<0.50 (the proposed rule): 65 trades from 2021-06 to 2026-09, in market 40%, calendar Sharpe 0.78, PF 2.0, avg trade +2.74%, median hold 8 days. Yearly sums: 2021 +0.69, 2022 -0.05, 2023 +0.54, 2024 +0.18, 2025 +0.16, 2026 +0.24. Max DD 41.9% at 1x. ETH buy-and-hold Sharpe over the same span is 0.30. - Neighbouring thresholds and windows give the same result. The 180d window gives Sharpe 0.79 and the 365d window 0.74. 0.6/0.4 on the 365d window gives 0.85. 0.8/0.5 on the 90d window with an 8h decision gives 0.99. Every variant has PF 1.9-2.4. - Decomposition controls on the same rule: low-RV alone gives Sharpe 0.16 and high-IV alone gives 0.50. The spread beats both of its parts. - BTC cross-check (not proposed): Sharpe 0.66 on the 180d window and 0.92 on the 365d window. Honest caveats: the Sharpe of 0.78 is below L166's 1.0 pre-study bar, and there are about 60 lifetime trades because DVOL starts 2021-03. The per-trade move is about 27x the round trip, so the binding risk is the sample size, not fees. Risk and sizing: 0.7x equity notional, one position at most, a -12% catastrophe stop on hourly closes, and a lockout until p falls below 0.50 again. Expected flat about 60% of the time.