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All hypotheses

Hypotheses

BTC USD-M Volatility-Compression Breakout, Long-Short (Single-Instrument BINANCE Perp, 1H Bars, Trade Only Expansions Out of Statistically-Rare Low-Volatility Coils, Volume-Confirmed, Chandelier-Trailed, Low-Parameter)

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, intraday strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual, 1-HOUR bars) that exploits VOLATILITY CLUSTERING — the statistical property that periods of unusually LOW realized volatility are…

Hypothesis

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, intraday strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual, 1-HOUR bars) that exploits VOLATILITY CLUSTERING — the statistical property that periods of unusually LOW realized volatility are followed by volatility EXPANSION — rather than return persistence. It is deliberately ORTHOGONAL to the factory's promoted trend/momentum siblings (TS-momentum daily sign on BTC/ETH/SOL, impulse-bar 1H): those condition on the DIRECTION of recent returns; this conditions on the MAGNITUDE/regime of……Show moreShow less

A LONG-SHORT, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT, intraday strategy on BTCUSDT.BINANCE (USD-M perpetual, 1-HOUR bars) that exploits VOLATILITY CLUSTERING — the statistical property that periods of unusually LOW realized volatility are followed by volatility EXPANSION — rather than return persistence. It is deliberately ORTHOGONAL to the factory's promoted trend/momentum siblings (TS-momentum daily sign on BTC/ETH/SOL, impulse-bar 1H): those condition on the DIRECTION of recent returns; this conditions on the MAGNITUDE/regime of recent VOLATILITY and is dormant most of the time, arming ONLY when volatility coils to a statistically-rare low. When a coil resolves with a volume-confirmed directional break, it takes a position in the break direction and rides the expansion. It is also distinct from the long-only Donchian breakout siblings (ADA/DOGE/BNB): it is long-AND-short on a major, and crucially it does NOT trade every channel breakout — it requires a prior volatility-compression gate, which filters out the chop-driven false breaks that sink naive breakout systems. SINGLE-VENUE, SINGLE-INSTRUMENT (no cross-venue fee/basis trap, no cross-account equity-aggregation artifact, no multi-instrument rotation accounting bug — all explicit prior failure modes), on BTC (the least news-gap-fragile major, avoiding the single-alt event blowups that wiped the XRP daily book), with 1H bars so the ATR stop acts intrabar rather than only at daily close. Uses pure OHLCV (+volume), deep Binance history for robust walk-forward/holdout, and a small parameter set to resist the overfitting that recurs in the factory.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.