Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

AVAX Daily RSI-2 Deep Oversold Mean Reversion Long

A minimalist long-only mean reversion strategy on AVAXUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and the classic Connors RSI-2 indicator (2-period RSI). AVAX is a high-beta smart-contract L1 altcoin that exhibits…

Hypothesis

A minimalist long-only mean reversion strategy on AVAXUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and the classic Connors RSI-2 indicator (2-period RSI). AVAX is a high-beta smart-contract L1 altcoin that exhibits sharp short-term oversold dislocations followed by mechanical bounces, particularly after sentiment-driven liquidation flushes. The strategy uses a 2-period RSI (extremely sensitive to short-term selling exhaustion) on daily bars to identify deep oversold conditions, then enters long on the next bar's open. The exit is also rule-based and unambiguous: close longs once RSI(2) recovers above a moderate threshold, OR a fixed-bar time stop, OR a hard percentage stop-loss. The strategy has only THREE parameters total (rsi_oversold_threshold, rsi_exit_threshold, max_hold_days) plus a trend filter (200-day SMA). Daily bars + slow signal generation = ~1-3 trades per month, keeping fee drag negligible relative to the 5-15% bounce magnitudes typical of altcoin oversold reversions.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.