Hypotheses
SOL Extreme Positive Funding Rate Contrarian Short on 8H Bars
A minimal short-only single-instrument carry-contrarian strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using 8-hour bars (aligned with Binance funding intervals). The hypothesis exploits a well-documented crypto perp…
Hypothesis
A minimal short-only single-instrument carry-contrarian strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using 8-hour bars (aligned with Binance funding intervals). The hypothesis exploits a well-documented crypto perp microstructure effect: when funding rate becomes extremely positive (longs heavily paying shorts), it signals over-leveraged crowded longs that are vulnerable to a deleveraging cascade and downside mean reversion over the next 1-3 funding periods. Designed to be distinct from the current portfolio (which contains pairs/ratio mean-reversion, liquidation-cascade, and long-only continuation) and from the recent failure cluster (all of which were long-only OHLCV-only strategies on 1H/4H/1D bars that got stuck in verification). Uses 8H bars + funding_rate_updates only — no quote/order-book data, no extra instruments, no calendar logic, no chained indicators. Two free parameters total: funding percentile threshold and time-based exit horizon.
Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.