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Hypotheses

BTC Weekly Directional Debit Spread on BINANCE_OPTIONS — Convexity-Wrapped Trend, Long Calls-Spread in Uptrend / Long Puts-Spread in Downtrend, Cheap-IV-Gated, Weekly Roll (Defined-Risk, Long-Premium, 3-Parameter)

A DEFINED-RISK, LONG-PREMIUM, single-venue DIRECTIONAL options strategy on BINANCE_OPTIONS BTC weekly contracts. This deliberately fills the empty options bucket (BINANCE_OPTIONS = 0.0% of 2997 experiments; quota…

Hypothesis

A DEFINED-RISK, LONG-PREMIUM, single-venue DIRECTIONAL options strategy on BINANCE_OPTIONS BTC weekly contracts. This deliberately fills the empty options bucket (BINANCE_OPTIONS = 0.0% of 2997 experiments; quota target >=15% combined options) while routing around every prior options death: it is NOT short vol (so it cannot draw the Deribit short-straddle/strangle risk_reject/no_edge deaths), it is NOT a slow monthly single-leg roll (the ETH Deribit ~30-delta monthly/biweekly long-convexity died data_wall on only……Show moreShow less

A DEFINED-RISK, LONG-PREMIUM, single-venue DIRECTIONAL options strategy on BINANCE_OPTIONS BTC weekly contracts. This deliberately fills the empty options bucket (BINANCE_OPTIONS = 0.0% of 2997 experiments; quota target >=15% combined options) while routing around every prior options death: it is NOT short vol (so it cannot draw the Deribit short-straddle/strangle risk_reject/no_edge deaths), it is NOT a slow monthly single-leg roll (the ETH Deribit ~30-delta monthly/biweekly long-convexity died data_wall on only 12 trades), and it trades the option legs directly on a weekly cadence (the ETH covered call died with 0 option trades). Each Monday (or first available weekly expiry ~7 DTE), read the primary BTC trend: sign of a slow momentum measure on the underlying (e.g. price vs a ~8-week EMA, or 8-week return sign). If UP, BUY a call debit spread (long ~25-delta call, short ~12-delta call, same weekly expiry); if DOWN, BUY a put debit spread (long ~25-delta put, short ~12-delta put). The short wing finances part of the long leg, cutting theta bleed roughly in half versus a naked long option and capping the premium at risk — which is exactly why the naked monthly convexity trade bled out and had too few trades. Enter ONLY when option IV rank is LOW (short-dated ATM IV in the bottom ~40% of its trailing 8-week range) so convexity is bought cheap and the positive-VRP headwind (crypto IV usually > RV) is smallest. Hold to expiry or exit early on a defined profit/stop, then roll into the next weekly. This produces a POSITIVELY-SKEWED payoff (small capped losses when the trend chops, large capped wins on the fat-tailed weekly BTC trend legs) that can survive where the LINEAR 4H/daily momentum re-skins (L91) and the short-vol harvests (L87) cannot, because the loss side is bounded and the win side rides the fat right tail of BTC weekly returns.

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.