Skip to content
All hypotheses

Hypotheses

SOL 1D ADX-Filtered Donchian Breakout Long with EMA Regime Gate

A long-only single-instrument trend-following strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and ONLY OHLCV data. The strategy combines a 20-day Donchian breakout entry with two strict regime filters:…

Hypothesis

A long-only single-instrument trend-following strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and ONLY OHLCV data. The strategy combines a 20-day Donchian breakout entry with two strict regime filters: ADX(14) > 25 (genuine trending market, not chop) and close > 50-day EMA (longer-term uptrend alignment). SOL is intentionally chosen to address a portfolio diversification gap — currently no SOL solo strategy exists (only SolAvaxPairsSpreadMeanReversion, which is a market-neutral pair). SOL has 4+ years……Show moreShow less

A long-only single-instrument trend-following strategy on SOLUSDT perpetual futures using daily (1D) bars and ONLY OHLCV data. The strategy combines a 20-day Donchian breakout entry with two strict regime filters: ADX(14) > 25 (genuine trending market, not chop) and close > 50-day EMA (longer-term uptrend alignment). SOL is intentionally chosen to address a portfolio diversification gap — currently no SOL solo strategy exists (only SolAvaxPairsSpreadMeanReversion, which is a market-neutral pair). SOL has 4+ years of clean Binance USD-M data, high beta with strong multi-month directional persistence, and ample liquidity. Designed to be deliberately minimal (4 parameters, 1 instrument, no supplementary data) to avoid the coding-stuck failures (LINK 1D, BTC COIN-M, BNB Weekend, OP-ARB pairs) and verification-bug failures (ETH OI Divergence) that plagued recent multi-data hypotheses. The ADX filter directly addresses the failure mode of the LTC Inside-Bar Breakout (no edge because pattern fired in chop) — by requiring ADX > 25, we mathematically exclude the regime where breakouts have zero predictive value. Daily timeframe ensures fee drag (~0.10% RT) is small relative to typical trend-trade returns (5-30%).

Backtest and paper results are hypothetical. Trading involves risk of loss.